Shadowing Practice: The Demographic Transition Model Explained | Geography | ClickView - Learn English Speaking with Video
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- For most of human history life has been a rather brutal affair.
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Both birth rates and death rates were high, making populations relatively stable.
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With almost eight billion people alive today, our world is a very different place from what it has ever been.
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To understand the complex relationship between changes in a population as a nation develops over time, demographers can use what's called the Demographic Transition Model.
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This theory of population change describe transitions between five stages of development.
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Each stage is defined by the relationship between the birth and death rate which in turn influences the rate of growth or decline.
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These changes are based on the influences of various social and economic developments.
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Let's break these stages down in more detail.
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What we know of ancient humans tells us that around one in four infants died before their first birthday.
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As many as half of all humans died before puberty.
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With such a high mortality rate populations needed high birth rates just to survive.
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Demographers refer to this balance as Stage One of the Demographic Transition Model.
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Relatively equal rates of births and deaths means the population size is generally stable.
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A population pyramid for this stage would have a wide base and a narrow top.
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While some regions today could arguably be described as Stage One, most demographers see it as a stage in our past.
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For many countries, it began changing during the Industrial Revolution in the late 18th century.
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Thanks to centuries of science, know a lot about how to keep food and water germ free, how to keep wounds from becoming infected, and how to vaccinate against many diseases.
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As people gain access to basic levels of healthcare, sanitation, and food security, the death rate falls, especially among children.
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Meanwhile, the birth rate remains high.
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While Stage One was relatively stable, Stage Two represents a population explosion.
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More children survive and have children of their own.
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Nations south of the Sahara in Africa, such as South Sudan and Nigeria, are considered to be at Stage Two of the model.
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As medicine and technology advance and more children survive, families start having fewer babies.
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Expanding populations also experience some significant cultural changes.
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There are more educational opportunities, especially for women.
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Better education leads to higher employment rates, meaning women have options other than being full-time mothers, including having a stronger say in how a community is run.
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Wealth, power, and innovation also help promote access to and use of contraception.
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These factors lead to a period of growth that's slower than before.
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Nations such as India, Brazil, and Vietnam are seen as being in this stage.
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Populations are still increasing, but at a reduced rate compared to Stage Two.
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Over time the reduced birth rate will be matched by a relatively low death rate, and the population will no longer increase or decrease.
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Stage Four of the Demographic Transition Model is when low death rates and low birth rates create a stable population.
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Most of world's developed nations such as the US, France, Canada, and Australia are at Stage Four.
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When birth rates remain below the approximate 2.1 children per woman that is necessary for keeping even the healthiest population stable, the number of people declines.
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If current predictions hold, a number of nations could soon join Japan and Germany in the fifth and final stage of the Demographic Transition Model.
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High costs of living, fear of global catastrophes, and other social pressures could see fewer people choosing to have children.
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Smaller populations might seem like a win for the environment, demanding fewer resources and leaving less waste.
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But the pressures on the economy will increase in the short term, as there are fewer young people to care for a slowly aging population.
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Nations, such as Germany and Japan, are already facing this decline.
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Other countries such as China might not be far behind.
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These nations must consider how to meet the challenges of a shrinking population.
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Croatia is another nation that could be seen as experiencing Stage Five.
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From the 1950s through the 1970s, 1980s, and to today, Croatia has represented each stage of the Demographic Transition Model.
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How countries will develop in the future is a hot topic for discussion.
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The Demographic Transition Model is useful but like all models, it has limits.
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From the devastation of wars and pandemics to surprises delivered by economic booms and new form of economics, anything could affect the population of Earth in the near and distant future.
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If you liked this video you can find it and so many more at clickview.net.
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Bu dersin kelimeleri ve konuşma notları
Bu videoda gölgeleme çalışması için 48 cümle ve 775 kelime var. Konuşma bölümü 5:49 sürüyor. Konuşmacı dakikada yaklaşık 133 kelimelik dengeli bir hızla konuşuyor; gölgeleme için rahat bir tempo. Kelimelerin %84’i İngilizcede en sık kullanılan 3.000 kelime arasında; geri kalanına başlamadan önce bakmakta fayda var.
Bu videodaki önemli kelimeler
Videodan daha az kullanılan 15 kelime, telaffuzu ve anlamıyla:
- stable /ˈsteɪ.bəl/ (isim) — ahır. A building, wing or dependency set apart and adapted for lodging and feeding (and training) ungulates, especially horses.
- topic /ˈtɑpɪk/ (isim) — mevzu, tema. A subject; a theme; a category or general area of interest.
- transition /tɹænˈzɪʃ.ən/ (isim) — geçiş. The process of change from one form, state, style or place to another.
- compare /kəmˈpɛɚ/ (fiil) — karşılaştırmak, kıyaslamak. To assess the similarities and differences between two or more things [“to compare X with Y”]. Having made the comparison of X with Y, one might have found it…
- refer /ɹɪˈfɜː/ (fiil) — zikretmek. To direct the attention of (someone toward something).
- economics /ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪks/ (isim) — ekonomi, iktisat. The study of resource and wealth allocation, consumption, and distribution, of capital and investment, and of management of the factors of production.
- narrow /ˈnæɹəʊ/ (sıfat) — dar. Having a small width; not wide; having opposite edges or sides that are close, especially by comparison to length or depth.
- resource /ɹɪˈzɔːs/ (isim) — kaynak. Something that one uses to achieve an objective, e.g. raw materials or personnel.
- innovation /ˌɪn.əˈveɪ.ʃən/ (isim) — inovasyon, yenilik. The act of innovating; the introduction of something new, in customs, rites, etc.
- wound /ˈwund/ (isim) — yara. An injury, such as a cut, stab, or tear, to a (usually external) part of the body.
- explosion /ɛkˈsploʊ.ʒən/ (isim) — patlama. A violent release of energy (sometimes mechanical, nuclear, or chemical); an act or instance of exploding.
- decrease /dɪˈkɹiːs/ (fiil) — azalmak, düşmek. Of a quantity, to become smaller.
- arguably /ˈɑɹɡjuəbli/ (zarf) — tartışmalı şekilde, tartışmasız. As can be supported or proven by sound logical deduction, evidence, and precedent, but without absolute certainty.
- mortality /mɔɹˈtælɪti/ (isim) — ölümlülük. The state of being susceptible to death.
- narrator /ˈnæˌɹeɪ.təɹ/ (isim) — anlatıcı. One who narrates or tells stories.
Duyacağınız deyimsel fiiller
- care for (fiil) — bakmak, göz kulak olmak. To attend to the needs of, especially in the manner of a nurse or personal aide.
Dikkat edilecek telaffuzlar
- “sh” ve “zh” sesleri: transition /tɹænˈzɪʃ.ən/, innovation /ˌɪn.əˈveɪ.ʃən/, explosion /ɛkˈsploʊ.ʒən/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, sanitation /ˌsænɪˈteɪʃən/
- Uzun kelimeler — vurguyu doğru yere koyun: economics /ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪks/, innovation /ˌɪn.əˈveɪ.ʃən/, mortality /mɔɹˈtælɪti/, approximate /əˈpɹɑk.sə.mət/, sanitation /ˌsænɪˈteɪʃən/
Bu videoyla nasıl çalışılır
- Videonun tamamını konuşmadan bir kez dinleyin ve bilmediğiniz kelimeleri not edin.
- Normal hızda cümle cümle tekrar edin; ritminiz konuşmacıyla aynı olana kadar her cümleyi yineleyin.
- Kendinizi kaydedin ve orijinaliyle karşılaştırın; stable, topic, transition gibi kelimelere özellikle dikkat edin.
Bu videodaki dil bilgisi
Konuşmacının en çok kullandığı yapılar, videodaki sözcüklerin aynısıyla:
| Yapı | Videoda |
|---|---|
| Edilgen yapı be + fiilin üçüncü hâli — kimin yaptığı değil, ne olduğu önemli | is defined · are based · be described |
| Present perfect have/has + fiilin üçüncü hâli — geçmişte olan ama şimdi de önemli olan bir eylem | has been · has ever been · has represented |
Gölgeleme Tekniği Nedir?
Gölgeleme, başlangıçta profesyonel tercüman eğitimi için geliştirilen ve çok dilli Dr. Alexander Arguelles tarafından popüler hale getirilen, bilim destekli bir dil öğrenme tekniğidir. Yöntem basit ama güçlüdür: ana dili İngilizce olan bir sesi dinler ve hemen yüksek sesle tekrar edersiniz — konuşmacıyı 1-2 saniye gecikmeyle takip eden bir gölge gibi. Pasif dinleme veya dilbilgisi alıştırmalarının aksine, gölgeleme beyninizi ve ağız kaslarınızı gerçek konuşma kalıplarını eşzamanlı olarak işlemeye ve yeniden üretmeye zorlar. Araştırmalar, telaffuz doğruluğu, tonlama, ritim, bağlı konuşma, dinleme anlama ve konuşma akıcılığını önemli ölçüde geliştirdiğini göstermektedir — bu da onu IELTS Konuşma hazırlığı ve gerçek dünya İngilizce iletişimi için en etkili yöntemlerden biri yapar.