쉐도잉 연습: Game Theory Scene | 21(2008) | Now Playing - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기

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All right.
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Now, who can explain Newton's method and how you use it?
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Uh, you can use it to solve nonlinear equations.
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That's impressive.
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That's really good.
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I mean, I'm very impressed by that, especially since my class is called Non-Linear Equations.
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All right, now somebody tell me something I don't already know.
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Anyone?
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Bueller, anyone?
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Bueller?
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Newton stole it.
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I'm sorry?
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Newton stole it.
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Joseph Rafson published the same method 50 years earlier.
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If the start value is too far removed from true zero, then it fails.
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I'm sorry, what's your name?
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Ben.
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Ben Campbell.
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Ben.
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So Ben Campbell suggests that Joseph Rafson was the original author of this method.
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Well, if that's the case, then why didn't he get any credit?
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Well, for one thing, Newton had a better publicist.
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And for another, after 1700, we know very little about Rafson other than the fact that he discovered the Kabbalah about 300 years before Madonna.
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All right, now, let's give Ben a chance for some extra credit, shall we?
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We're gonna call this, um, the game show host problem, all right?
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Ben, suppose you're on a game show, and you are given a chance to choose from three different doors, all right?
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Now, behind one of the doors is a new car.
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Behind the other two, goats.
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Which door would you choose, Ben?
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How would you choose, Ben?
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Uh, door number one.
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Door number one.
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Ben chooses door number one.
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All right, now, the game show host, who, by the way, knows what's behind all the other doors, decides to open another door.
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Let's say he chooses door number three, behind which sits a goat.
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Now, Ben, game show host comes up to you and says, Ben, do you want to stay with door number one or go with door number two?
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Now, is it in your interest to switch your choice?
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Yeah.
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Well, wait.
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Remember, the host knows where the car is.
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So, how do you know he's not playing a trick on you, trying to use reverse psychology to get you to pick a goat?
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Well, I wouldn't really care.
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I mean, my answer's based on statistics, based on variable change.
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Variable change?
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He just asked you a simple question.
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Yeah, but it just changed everything.
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Enlighten us.
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Well, when I was originally asked to choose a door, I had a 33.3% chance of choosing right.
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But after he opens one of the doors and then re-offers me the choice, it's now 66.7% if I choose to switch.
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So, yeah, I'll take door number two and thank you for the extra 33.3%.
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Exactly.
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People remember, if you don't know which door to open, always account for variable change.
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Now, see, most people wouldn't take the switch out of paranoia,
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fear, emotions, but Mr. Campbell kept motions aside and let simple math get his ass into a brand new car.
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Which is better than that goat you've been driving around campus.
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All right, everybody.
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That's the end of the day.
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Thank you very much.
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Your graded papers are down here at the end down here
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at the end you can pick them up on your way out

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