쉐도잉 연습: Is War Over? — A Paradox Explained - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기
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Violence and war.
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The insane brutality of ISIS continues.
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The Russians are invading Ukraine, and the Palestinians and Israelis continue to slug it out.
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Does that make you feel gloomy?
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Well, don't.
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Because if you look at the numbers, war actually seems to be going out of fashion, while the global population is at an all-time high.
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It seems that we live in the most peaceful period in human history.
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How is this possible?
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As of September 2014, there were four conflicts going on in the world
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that had caused at least 10,000 people to die since January 2013.
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Nine conflicts that killed more than 1,000 people, and 13 that killed more than 100 since January 2013.
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Not really peaceful, but consider this.
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Of all the conflicts going on, none is an active war between countries.
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are either civil wars or local conflicts.
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Although civil wars are terrible and cause huge suffering, their impact is usually way smaller than a war between nations or empires.
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When two nations engage in war, they can mobilize much bigger forces, have access to all of the states' resources and logistics,
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and almost to all of the population.
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So why have we transitioned from wars between nation states to civil wars.
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A lot of it is to do with colonialism and the Cold War.
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When the Cold War ended, a major driver of armed conflict vanished too.
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But the breakup of the communist dictatorships revealed new or old tensions
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and brought new conflicts in the now freed states which often resulted in civil war.
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Much more importantly, in 1945, nearly all of Africa, much of Asia and parts of Latin America were under colonial rule.
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By 1990 all but a few islands were independent.
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But wait, couldn't you argue that what today's multinational corporations are doing in the third world is just as bad as colonialism?
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Let's look at Congo.
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It was established as a colony in 1885 by the Belgian king, an area 80 times the size of Belgium.
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Violence committed against the indigenous Congolese
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and the The ruthless system of economic exploitation had killed about half of the population by 1908.
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About 10 million Congolese were executed or starved to death.
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Millions were mutilated and traumatized.
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The economic exploitation of the Congo remained the top priority, and forced labor never really ceased completely until the end of Belgian rule in 1960,
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which is not really that long ago.
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So, no, colonialism was much worse than vulture capitalism is today, and it ended just two generations ago.
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Most of the conflicts that are going on right now are in areas that 60 years ago were under foreign control.
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But things are getting better.
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Until 1989, victory for one side in a civil war was common, while nowadays victories are much rarer.
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At the same time, negotiated endings have jumped from 10% to almost 40%.
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What about the rest of the world?
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Why have nation states stopped attacking each other?
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There are four major reasons.
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1. Democratization.
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The steady development from autocracy to democracy.
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Democracies hardly ever fight each other.
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Of all the state against state wars fought since 1900, only a minority were fought between democracies.
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2. Globalization.
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War is just not as effective at achieving economic goals as it used to be.
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Today it's almost always cheaper to buy resources on the global market than to seize them by force.
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People from other nations are more valuable to us alive than dead, which overall is a pretty new concept.
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3. War is so 20th century.
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Until World War I, warfare was seen as an inevitable part of the human experience
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and as a valuable tool which you could use to achieve goals when diplomacy hit a brick wall.
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Today we have rules that declare acts of aggression illegal
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and stipulate that armed force is only justified in self-defense or with the authority of the UN Security Council.
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These rules are still broken, but today it's harder to do so without sparking opposition and disapproval.
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Also, we have an international court for war crimes in The Hague, and that's a very recent innovation.
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4. Borders are mostly fixed now.
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In World War II, territorial wars generally stopped when most countries pledged to accept international borders and respect other nations' autonomy.
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But is all of this just an anomaly, or are we on the road to lasting peace?
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Truth is, we don't know yet.
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We need a big enough sample to rule out the historical average, which is about one or two big wars per century.
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We just haven't had enough time since World War II to rule out the possibility that war is not going away.
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If we don't have one major war in the next 75 years, we can be really confident that humanity is changing.
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So you see, war might be over.
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Yes, there are nasty conflicts going on in many places, but overall, things are getting better and we can make them even better by speaking up for peace and democracy.
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