Shadowing Practice: Will China Attack Taiwan? | Ask The Professor - Learn English Speaking with Video
Les maken...
1
Hi, this is John Mearsheimer.
2
In doing my various videos, I often receive questions that people in the audience would like me to answer.
3
And I thought what I would do moving forward is try on occasion to answer one of those questions
4
and build up an inventory of questions and answers moving forward.
5
One question I received recently is,
6
will China invade Taiwan in the next decade?
7
My answer to that is no, I think it's highly unlikely.
8
There's one possible caveat, and I'll explain that at the end.
9
The reason I don't think that China will invade Taiwan is
10
because they don't have the military capability to do it at an acceptable price.
11
The fact is that for China to invade Taiwan, it would have to cross the Taiwan Strait.
12
And the Taiwan Strait is a formidable body of water.
13
And getting across that body of water with a large amphibious force in the face of resistance would be extremely difficult.
14
We know from the historical record, especially from the American campaigns in Europe and in the Pacific during World War II,
15
that amphibious operations are very difficult to pull off
16
because the forces are sitting on top of the water as they move towards the other side's beaches,
17
and they provide a target -rich environment for the defending forces.
18
So you have to have the right circumstances, and you have to have formidable forces to pull that off.
19
And I don't think that the Chinese at this point in time are capable of pulling off an amphibious operation.
20
or an amphibious assault of Taiwan.
21
First of all, it's important to emphasize that the Chinese army has not fought a war since 1979.
22
So this is not an army that's primed for combat.
23
This is not an army that's had a lot of combat experience
24
and could pull off with ease a difficult military operation like an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait.
25
Moreover, if the United States is involved, and I assume that the United States would be involved,
26
the forces that the Chinese would have to overcome would be formidable.
27
There would be many thousands of drones in the sky.
28
And we know from the Ukraine war that drones have a significant effect on the battlefield,
29
and for sure drones would have a significant effect on the ability of those amphibious forces coming from China
30
and moving across the Taiwan Strait.
31
I think that those drones would do enormous damage to the amphibious forces. And moreover,
32
I think that American submarines operating underneath the waters of the Taiwan Strait would wreak havoc on the attacking forces as well.
33
So I don't think the Chinese would be able to pull it off
34
or will be able to pull it off in the next decade.
35
I also think that even if I'm wrong
36
and the Chinese were able to get across the Taiwan Strait and land on the beaches of Taiwan,
37
they would pay an enormous cost.
38
And in effect, it would be a pyrrhic victory.
39
I think for the Chinese to do it, to even attempt to attack Taiwan,
40
they would have to believe that they could win the war rather quickly and that the consequences would not be too great.
41
In other words, the cost of doing so would not be too great.
42
So I don't think it's necessary for the Taiwanese and the Americans, and again, I'm assuming the Americans and the Japanese for that matter,
43
would assist the Taiwanese in their defense of their country.
44
I don't think that they have to guarantee that China will lose to deter the Chinese.
45
All they have to do is promise the Chinese that they would pay a huge cost, even if they were to win this war.
46
And I think that the Taiwanese, the Americans, and Japanese have that capability, and will have that capability for the next 10 years at least.
47
So for all those reasons, I don't imagine that.
48
that the Chinese will attempt to conquer Taiwan in the next decade.
49
But I want to add one caveat to what I just said.
50
I think the Chinese have made it clear that if Taiwan were to declare its independence,
51
they would find that categorically unacceptable, and they would attack Taiwan,
52
and that would include an amphibious assault.
53
So I think that the Chinese, were they to face a Taiwan that had declared its independence,
54
would go to war, even if they thought they had to pay an egregious price to defeat Taiwan.
55
Taiwan is just so important to China,
56
its sacred territory, that the idea of Taiwan declaring its independence is unacceptable, period, end of story.
57
And therefore, I think in that circumstance, China would go to war over Taiwan in the next decade.
58
But it's important to also emphasize that the United States is fully aware of this danger.
59
The United States does not want to fight a war over Taiwan.
60
Very important to emphasize that.
61
The United States, of course, basically has an ally in Taiwan at this point in time the United States is interested in maintaining the status quo,
62
not changing the status quo.
63
So the United States wants to avoid war.
64
And if the United States even smells any indication that Taiwan is going to declare its independence,
65
it will land on the Taiwanese like a ton of bricks
66
and make it clear to them that declaring independence or even hinting
67
that they're declaring independence is unacceptable so i think that
68
when you look at all the various factors
69
that underpin this issue it's unlikely
70
that china will attempt to invade taiwan in the next decade which of course is all for the good.
71
Thank you.
📺 Zelfde Kanaal
✨ Aanbevolen Video
C15
190 zinnen
Can there ever really be “one China?”
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C13
149 zinnen
Can Humanity Stop A Planet-Killing Asteroid?
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C1588 zinnen
The Iran War Is the Biggest Strategic Blunder in US History (w/ John Mearsheimer) | TCHR
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
B2260 zinnen
Should America Leave NATO?
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C12
65 zinnen
Is War Over? — A Paradox Explained
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
B277 zinnen
The Attack on Pearl Harbor Changed Everything | WWII With Tom Hanks
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C12
450 zinnen
Washington Provoked Turkey and Made a Fatal Mistake — What Happens Now? | Scott Ritter
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C12
150 zinnen
John Mearsheimer: Why Russia Might NUKE Europe
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
B22
91 zinnen
Trung Cộng đang tự cắn xé chính mình | Trung Quốc Không Kiểm Duyệt
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C13
215 zinnen
Joe & Matt Walsh Go Back and Forth on the Moon Landing Conspiracy
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C14
44 zinnen
The Tribute System: The new World Order
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepBusiness English
B23
133 zinnen
Trump is Erasing 50 Years of Foreign Policy (They Can't Stop It)
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
Woordenschat en spreektips bij deze les
Deze video bevat 71 zinnen en 955 woorden om na te spreken. Het gesproken deel duurt 7:17. De spreker praat in een gelijkmatig tempo van ongeveer 131 woorden per minuut, prettig om te shadowen. 83% van de woorden hoort bij de 3.000 meest gebruikte Engelse woorden; de rest kun je beter vooraf bekijken.
Belangrijke woorden in deze video
15 woorden uit de video die het leren waard zijn, met uitspraak en betekenis:
| Woord | Uitspraak | Betekenis |
|---|---|---|
| declare werkwoord | /dɪˈklɛɚ/ | verklaren |
| drone zelfstandig naamwoord | /dɹoʊn/ | dar, drone |
| invade werkwoord | /ɪnˈveɪd/ | binnenvallen, aanvallen |
| assault zelfstandig naamwoord | /əˈsɔlt/ | aanranding, overval |
| unacceptable bijvoeglijk naamwoord | /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/ | onaanvaardbaar, onacceptabel |
| emphasize werkwoord | /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/ | benadrukken, beklemtonen |
| formidable bijvoeglijk naamwoord | /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/ | ontzagwekkend |
| unlikely bijvoeglijk naamwoord | /ʌnˈlaɪkli/ | onwaarschijnlijk |
| enormous bijvoeglijk naamwoord | /ɪˈnɔː.məs/ | enorm, gigantisch |
| moreover bijwoord | /mɔːˈɹəʊ.və/ | bovendien, daarnaast |
| circumstance zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/ | omstandigheid |
| defend werkwoord | /dɪˈfɪnd/ | verdedigen |
| guarantee zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/ | garantie |
| assist werkwoord | /əˈsɪst/ | assisteren, bijstaan |
| occasion zelfstandig naamwoord | /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/ | gelegenheid |
Phrasal verbs die je zult horen
| Woord | Betekenis |
|---|---|
| build up werkwoord | opstapelen |
Uitspraak om op te letten
De spreker gebruikt 11 samentrekkingen en verkorte vormen, zoals don't, I'm, I'll. Spreek ze kort uit, zoals je ze hoort.
- De klanken “sh” en “zh”: occasion /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
- Lange woorden — let op de klemtoon: capability /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, unacceptable /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/, formidable /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/, acceptable /əkˈsɛp.tə.bəl/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
Zo oefen je met deze video
- Luister de hele video één keer zonder te spreken en noteer de woorden die je niet kent.
- Spreek zin voor zin na op normale snelheid en herhaal elke zin tot je ritme gelijk is aan dat van de spreker.
- Neem jezelf op en vergelijk met het origineel; let daarbij op woorden als declare, drone, invade.
Wat is de Shadowing-techniek?
Shadowing is een wetenschappelijk onderbouwde taalleermethode die oorspronkelijk is ontwikkeld voor professionele tolkentraining en gepopulariseerd door polyglot Dr. Alexander Arguelles. De methode is eenvoudig maar krachtig: je luistert naar native Engelse audio en herhaalt het onmiddellijk hardop — als een schaduw die de spreker volgt met slechts 1–2 seconden vertraging. In tegenstelling tot passief luisteren of grammaticadrills, dwingt shadowing je hersenen en mondspieren om echte spraakpatronen tegelijkertijd te verwerken en te reproduceren. Onderzoek toont aan dat het de uitspraaknauwkeurigheid, intonatie, ritme, verbonden spraak, luisterbegrip en spreekvaardigheid aanzienlijk verbetert — waardoor het een van de meest effectieve methoden is voor IELTS Speaking-voorbereiding en echte Engelse communicatie.