跟读练习: Will China Attack Taiwan? | Ask The Professor - 通过视频学习英语口语
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Hi, this is John Mearsheimer.
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In doing my various videos, I often receive questions that people in the audience would like me to answer.
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And I thought what I would do moving forward is try on occasion to answer one of those questions
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and build up an inventory of questions and answers moving forward.
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One question I received recently is,
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will China invade Taiwan in the next decade?
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My answer to that is no, I think it's highly unlikely.
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There's one possible caveat, and I'll explain that at the end.
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The reason I don't think that China will invade Taiwan is
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because they don't have the military capability to do it at an acceptable price.
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The fact is that for China to invade Taiwan, it would have to cross the Taiwan Strait.
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And the Taiwan Strait is a formidable body of water.
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And getting across that body of water with a large amphibious force in the face of resistance would be extremely difficult.
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We know from the historical record, especially from the American campaigns in Europe and in the Pacific during World War II,
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that amphibious operations are very difficult to pull off
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because the forces are sitting on top of the water as they move towards the other side's beaches,
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and they provide a target -rich environment for the defending forces.
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So you have to have the right circumstances, and you have to have formidable forces to pull that off.
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And I don't think that the Chinese at this point in time are capable of pulling off an amphibious operation.
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or an amphibious assault of Taiwan.
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First of all, it's important to emphasize that the Chinese army has not fought a war since 1979.
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So this is not an army that's primed for combat.
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This is not an army that's had a lot of combat experience
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and could pull off with ease a difficult military operation like an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait.
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Moreover, if the United States is involved, and I assume that the United States would be involved,
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the forces that the Chinese would have to overcome would be formidable.
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There would be many thousands of drones in the sky.
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And we know from the Ukraine war that drones have a significant effect on the battlefield,
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and for sure drones would have a significant effect on the ability of those amphibious forces coming from China
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and moving across the Taiwan Strait.
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I think that those drones would do enormous damage to the amphibious forces. And moreover,
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I think that American submarines operating underneath the waters of the Taiwan Strait would wreak havoc on the attacking forces as well.
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So I don't think the Chinese would be able to pull it off
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or will be able to pull it off in the next decade.
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I also think that even if I'm wrong
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and the Chinese were able to get across the Taiwan Strait and land on the beaches of Taiwan,
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they would pay an enormous cost.
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And in effect, it would be a pyrrhic victory.
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I think for the Chinese to do it, to even attempt to attack Taiwan,
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they would have to believe that they could win the war rather quickly and that the consequences would not be too great.
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In other words, the cost of doing so would not be too great.
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So I don't think it's necessary for the Taiwanese and the Americans, and again, I'm assuming the Americans and the Japanese for that matter,
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would assist the Taiwanese in their defense of their country.
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I don't think that they have to guarantee that China will lose to deter the Chinese.
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All they have to do is promise the Chinese that they would pay a huge cost, even if they were to win this war.
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And I think that the Taiwanese, the Americans, and Japanese have that capability, and will have that capability for the next 10 years at least.
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So for all those reasons, I don't imagine that.
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that the Chinese will attempt to conquer Taiwan in the next decade.
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But I want to add one caveat to what I just said.
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I think the Chinese have made it clear that if Taiwan were to declare its independence,
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they would find that categorically unacceptable, and they would attack Taiwan,
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and that would include an amphibious assault.
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So I think that the Chinese, were they to face a Taiwan that had declared its independence,
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would go to war, even if they thought they had to pay an egregious price to defeat Taiwan.
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Taiwan is just so important to China,
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its sacred territory, that the idea of Taiwan declaring its independence is unacceptable, period, end of story.
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And therefore, I think in that circumstance, China would go to war over Taiwan in the next decade.
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But it's important to also emphasize that the United States is fully aware of this danger.
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The United States does not want to fight a war over Taiwan.
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Very important to emphasize that.
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The United States, of course, basically has an ally in Taiwan at this point in time the United States is interested in maintaining the status quo,
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not changing the status quo.
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So the United States wants to avoid war.
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And if the United States even smells any indication that Taiwan is going to declare its independence,
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it will land on the Taiwanese like a ton of bricks
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and make it clear to them that declaring independence or even hinting
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that they're declaring independence is unacceptable so i think that
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when you look at all the various factors
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that underpin this issue it's unlikely
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that china will attempt to invade taiwan in the next decade which of course is all for the good.
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Thank you.
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本课的词汇与口语要点
这段视频共有 71 个句子、955 个单词可供跟读。 讲话部分时长为 7:17。 说话人语速平稳，每分钟约 131 个词，很适合跟读。 83% 的单词属于英语最常用的 3,000 词，其余的词建议在练习前先学一下。
视频中的重点词汇
视频中 15 个值得学习的单词，附发音和释义：
| 单词 | 发音 | 释义 |
|---|---|---|
| declare 动词 | /dɪˈklɛɚ/ | 宣布 |
| drone 名词 | /dɹoʊn/ | 雄蜂 |
| invade 动词 | /ɪnˈveɪd/ | 入侵, 侵入 |
| assault 名词 | /əˈsɔlt/ | 突擊 /突击, 攻擊 /攻击 |
| unacceptable 形容词 | /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/ | 無可接受 /无可接受 |
| emphasize 动词 | /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/ | 強調 /强调, 著重 |
| formidable 形容词 | /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/ | 可畏, 令人生畏的 |
| unlikely 形容词 | /ʌnˈlaɪkli/ | 不可能的 |
| enormous 形容词 | /ɪˈnɔː.məs/ | 巨大的 |
| moreover 副词 | /mɔːˈɹəʊ.və/ | 並且 /并且, 而且 |
| circumstance 名词 | /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/ | 情況 /情况, 狀態 /状态 |
| defend 动词 | /dɪˈfɪnd/ | 保衛 /保卫, 守衛 /守卫 |
| guarantee 名词 | /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/ | 保證 /保证 |
| assist 动词 | /əˈsɪst/ | 幫 /帮, 幫助 /帮助 |
| occasion 名词 | /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/ | 場合 /场合, 機會 /机会 |
需要注意的发音
说话人用了 11 次缩略和弱读形式，例如 don't, I'm, I'll。请按听到的简短形式来说。
- “sh” 和 “zh” 音: occasion /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
- 长单词——注意重音位置: capability /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, unacceptable /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/, formidable /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/, acceptable /əkˈsɛp.tə.bəl/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
如何用这段视频练习
- 先完整听一遍视频，不要开口，记下不认识的单词。
- 用正常速度逐句跟读，每句重复到你的节奏与说话人一致为止。
- 录下自己的声音并与原声对比，特别注意 declare, drone, invade 这类单词。
什么是跟读法？
跟读法 (Shadowing) 是一种有科学依据的语言学习技巧，最初开发用于专业口译员的培训，并由多语言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。这个方法简单而强大：您在听英语母语原声的同时立即大声重复——就像是一个延迟1-2秒紧跟说话者的影子。与被动听力或语法练习不同，跟读法强迫您的大脑和口腔肌肉同时处理并模仿真实的讲话模式。研究表明它能显着提高发音准确性，语调，节奏，连读，听力理解和口语流利度——使其成为雅思口语备考和真实英语交流最有效的方法之一。