Shadowing-Übung: Will China Attack Taiwan? | Ask The Professor - Englisch Sprechen Lernen mit Video
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Hi, this is John Mearsheimer.
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In doing my various videos, I often receive questions that people in the audience would like me to answer.
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And I thought what I would do moving forward is try on occasion to answer one of those questions
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and build up an inventory of questions and answers moving forward.
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One question I received recently is,
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will China invade Taiwan in the next decade?
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My answer to that is no, I think it's highly unlikely.
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There's one possible caveat, and I'll explain that at the end.
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The reason I don't think that China will invade Taiwan is
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because they don't have the military capability to do it at an acceptable price.
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The fact is that for China to invade Taiwan, it would have to cross the Taiwan Strait.
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And the Taiwan Strait is a formidable body of water.
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And getting across that body of water with a large amphibious force in the face of resistance would be extremely difficult.
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We know from the historical record, especially from the American campaigns in Europe and in the Pacific during World War II,
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that amphibious operations are very difficult to pull off
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because the forces are sitting on top of the water as they move towards the other side's beaches,
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and they provide a target -rich environment for the defending forces.
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So you have to have the right circumstances, and you have to have formidable forces to pull that off.
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And I don't think that the Chinese at this point in time are capable of pulling off an amphibious operation.
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or an amphibious assault of Taiwan.
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First of all, it's important to emphasize that the Chinese army has not fought a war since 1979.
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So this is not an army that's primed for combat.
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This is not an army that's had a lot of combat experience
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and could pull off with ease a difficult military operation like an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait.
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Moreover, if the United States is involved, and I assume that the United States would be involved,
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the forces that the Chinese would have to overcome would be formidable.
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There would be many thousands of drones in the sky.
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And we know from the Ukraine war that drones have a significant effect on the battlefield,
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and for sure drones would have a significant effect on the ability of those amphibious forces coming from China
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and moving across the Taiwan Strait.
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I think that those drones would do enormous damage to the amphibious forces. And moreover,
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I think that American submarines operating underneath the waters of the Taiwan Strait would wreak havoc on the attacking forces as well.
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So I don't think the Chinese would be able to pull it off
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or will be able to pull it off in the next decade.
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I also think that even if I'm wrong
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and the Chinese were able to get across the Taiwan Strait and land on the beaches of Taiwan,
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they would pay an enormous cost.
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And in effect, it would be a pyrrhic victory.
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I think for the Chinese to do it, to even attempt to attack Taiwan,
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they would have to believe that they could win the war rather quickly and that the consequences would not be too great.
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In other words, the cost of doing so would not be too great.
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So I don't think it's necessary for the Taiwanese and the Americans, and again, I'm assuming the Americans and the Japanese for that matter,
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would assist the Taiwanese in their defense of their country.
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I don't think that they have to guarantee that China will lose to deter the Chinese.
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All they have to do is promise the Chinese that they would pay a huge cost, even if they were to win this war.
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And I think that the Taiwanese, the Americans, and Japanese have that capability, and will have that capability for the next 10 years at least.
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So for all those reasons, I don't imagine that.
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that the Chinese will attempt to conquer Taiwan in the next decade.
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But I want to add one caveat to what I just said.
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I think the Chinese have made it clear that if Taiwan were to declare its independence,
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they would find that categorically unacceptable, and they would attack Taiwan,
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and that would include an amphibious assault.
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So I think that the Chinese, were they to face a Taiwan that had declared its independence,
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would go to war, even if they thought they had to pay an egregious price to defeat Taiwan.
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Taiwan is just so important to China,
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its sacred territory, that the idea of Taiwan declaring its independence is unacceptable, period, end of story.
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And therefore, I think in that circumstance, China would go to war over Taiwan in the next decade.
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But it's important to also emphasize that the United States is fully aware of this danger.
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The United States does not want to fight a war over Taiwan.
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Very important to emphasize that.
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The United States, of course, basically has an ally in Taiwan at this point in time the United States is interested in maintaining the status quo,
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not changing the status quo.
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So the United States wants to avoid war.
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And if the United States even smells any indication that Taiwan is going to declare its independence,
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it will land on the Taiwanese like a ton of bricks
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and make it clear to them that declaring independence or even hinting
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that they're declaring independence is unacceptable so i think that
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when you look at all the various factors
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that underpin this issue it's unlikely
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that china will attempt to invade taiwan in the next decade which of course is all for the good.
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Thank you.
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Wortschatz und Sprechhinweise zu dieser Lektion
Dieses Video enthält 71 Sätze und 955 Wörter zum Nachsprechen. Der gesprochene Teil dauert 7:17. Der Sprecher spricht gleichmäßig mit etwa 131 Wörtern pro Minute – ein angenehmes Tempo fürs Shadowing. 83 % der Wörter gehören zu den 3.000 häufigsten im Englischen; den Rest solltest du dir vor dem Üben ansehen.
Wichtiger Wortschatz in diesem Video
15 lernenswerte Wörter aus dem Video, mit Aussprache und Bedeutung:
| Wort | Aussprache | Bedeutung |
|---|---|---|
| declare Verb | /dɪˈklɛɚ/ | ausrufen, aussagen |
| drone Substantiv | /dɹoʊn/ | Drohne |
| invade Verb | /ɪnˈveɪd/ | eindringen, verletzen |
| assault Substantiv | /əˈsɔlt/ | Anschlag, Überfall |
| capability Substantiv | /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/ | Fähigkeit, Fertigkeit |
| unacceptable Adjektiv | /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/ | inakzeptabel |
| emphasize Verb | /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/ | betonen, unterstreichen |
| formidable Adjektiv | /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/ | respekteinflößend, furchteinflößend |
| unlikely Adjektiv | /ʌnˈlaɪkli/ | unwahrscheinlich |
| enormous Adjektiv | /ɪˈnɔː.məs/ | enorm, riesig |
| moreover Adverb | /mɔːˈɹəʊ.və/ | außerdem, überdies |
| circumstance Substantiv | /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/ | Umstand |
| defend Verb | /dɪˈfɪnd/ | verteidigen |
| guarantee Substantiv | /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/ | Garantie |
| assist Verb | /əˈsɪst/ | assistieren, helfen |
Phrasal Verbs, die du hören wirst
| Wort | Bedeutung |
|---|---|
| move forward Verb | vorantreiben, vorwärtstreiben |
| pull off Verb | abzupfen, wegziehen |
| build up Verb | sich ansammeln, sich türmen |
Aussprache, auf die du achten solltest
Der Sprecher verwendet 11 Kurzformen und abgeschwächte Formen, zum Beispiel don't, I'm, I'll. Sprich sie in der kurzen Form, so wie du sie hörst.
- Die Laute „sh“ und „zh“: occasion /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
- Lange Wörter – auf die Betonung achten: capability /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, unacceptable /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/, formidable /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/, acceptable /əkˈsɛp.tə.bəl/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
So übst du mit diesem Video
- Höre dir das ganze Video einmal an, ohne zu sprechen, und notiere die Wörter, die du nicht kennst.
- Sprich Satz für Satz in normaler Geschwindigkeit nach und wiederhole jeden, bis dein Rhythmus zum Sprecher passt.
- Nimm dich auf und vergleiche mit dem Original; achte dabei auf Wörter wie declare, drone, invade.
Was ist die Shadowing-Technik?
Shadowing ist eine wissenschaftlich fundierte Sprachlerntechnik, die ursprünglich für die professionelle Dolmetscherausbildung entwickelt und durch den Polyglotten Dr. Alexander Arguelles populär gemacht wurde. Die Methode ist einfach aber wirkungsvoll: Du hörst englisches Audio von Muttersprachlern und wiederholst es sofort laut — wie ein Schatten, der dem Sprecher mit nur 1–2 Sekunden Verzögerung folgt. Anders als passives Hören oder Grammatikübungen zwingt Shadowing dein Gehirn und deine Mundmuskulatur, gleichzeitig echte Sprachmuster zu verarbeiten und zu reproduzieren. Studien zeigen, dass es Aussprachegenauigkeit, Intonation, Rhythmus, verbundene Sprache, Hörverständnis und Sprechflüssigkeit signifikant verbessert — was es zu einer der effektivsten Methoden für die IELTS Speaking-Vorbereitung und reale englische Kommunikation macht.