Pratica di Shadowing: Will China Attack Taiwan? | Ask The Professor - Impara a parlare inglese con i video
Creazione lezione...
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Hi, this is John Mearsheimer.
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In doing my various videos, I often receive questions that people in the audience would like me to answer.
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And I thought what I would do moving forward is try on occasion to answer one of those questions
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and build up an inventory of questions and answers moving forward.
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One question I received recently is,
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will China invade Taiwan in the next decade?
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My answer to that is no, I think it's highly unlikely.
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There's one possible caveat, and I'll explain that at the end.
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The reason I don't think that China will invade Taiwan is
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because they don't have the military capability to do it at an acceptable price.
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The fact is that for China to invade Taiwan, it would have to cross the Taiwan Strait.
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And the Taiwan Strait is a formidable body of water.
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And getting across that body of water with a large amphibious force in the face of resistance would be extremely difficult.
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We know from the historical record, especially from the American campaigns in Europe and in the Pacific during World War II,
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that amphibious operations are very difficult to pull off
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because the forces are sitting on top of the water as they move towards the other side's beaches,
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and they provide a target -rich environment for the defending forces.
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So you have to have the right circumstances, and you have to have formidable forces to pull that off.
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And I don't think that the Chinese at this point in time are capable of pulling off an amphibious operation.
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or an amphibious assault of Taiwan.
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First of all, it's important to emphasize that the Chinese army has not fought a war since 1979.
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So this is not an army that's primed for combat.
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This is not an army that's had a lot of combat experience
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and could pull off with ease a difficult military operation like an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait.
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Moreover, if the United States is involved, and I assume that the United States would be involved,
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the forces that the Chinese would have to overcome would be formidable.
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There would be many thousands of drones in the sky.
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And we know from the Ukraine war that drones have a significant effect on the battlefield,
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and for sure drones would have a significant effect on the ability of those amphibious forces coming from China
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and moving across the Taiwan Strait.
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I think that those drones would do enormous damage to the amphibious forces. And moreover,
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I think that American submarines operating underneath the waters of the Taiwan Strait would wreak havoc on the attacking forces as well.
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So I don't think the Chinese would be able to pull it off
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or will be able to pull it off in the next decade.
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I also think that even if I'm wrong
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and the Chinese were able to get across the Taiwan Strait and land on the beaches of Taiwan,
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they would pay an enormous cost.
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And in effect, it would be a pyrrhic victory.
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I think for the Chinese to do it, to even attempt to attack Taiwan,
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they would have to believe that they could win the war rather quickly and that the consequences would not be too great.
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In other words, the cost of doing so would not be too great.
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So I don't think it's necessary for the Taiwanese and the Americans, and again, I'm assuming the Americans and the Japanese for that matter,
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would assist the Taiwanese in their defense of their country.
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I don't think that they have to guarantee that China will lose to deter the Chinese.
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All they have to do is promise the Chinese that they would pay a huge cost, even if they were to win this war.
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And I think that the Taiwanese, the Americans, and Japanese have that capability, and will have that capability for the next 10 years at least.
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So for all those reasons, I don't imagine that.
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that the Chinese will attempt to conquer Taiwan in the next decade.
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But I want to add one caveat to what I just said.
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I think the Chinese have made it clear that if Taiwan were to declare its independence,
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they would find that categorically unacceptable, and they would attack Taiwan,
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and that would include an amphibious assault.
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So I think that the Chinese, were they to face a Taiwan that had declared its independence,
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would go to war, even if they thought they had to pay an egregious price to defeat Taiwan.
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Taiwan is just so important to China,
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its sacred territory, that the idea of Taiwan declaring its independence is unacceptable, period, end of story.
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And therefore, I think in that circumstance, China would go to war over Taiwan in the next decade.
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But it's important to also emphasize that the United States is fully aware of this danger.
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The United States does not want to fight a war over Taiwan.
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Very important to emphasize that.
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The United States, of course, basically has an ally in Taiwan at this point in time the United States is interested in maintaining the status quo,
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not changing the status quo.
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So the United States wants to avoid war.
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And if the United States even smells any indication that Taiwan is going to declare its independence,
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it will land on the Taiwanese like a ton of bricks
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and make it clear to them that declaring independence or even hinting
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that they're declaring independence is unacceptable so i think that
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when you look at all the various factors
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that underpin this issue it's unlikely
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that china will attempt to invade taiwan in the next decade which of course is all for the good.
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Thank you.
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Vocabolario e note di pronuncia per questa lezione
Questo video contiene 71 frasi e 955 parole da ripetere con lo shadowing. Il parlato dura 7:17. Chi parla mantiene un ritmo costante di circa 131 parole al minuto, comodo per lo shadowing. Il 83% delle parole rientra nelle 3.000 più comuni dell’inglese; conviene studiare le altre prima di iniziare.
Vocaboli chiave di questo video
15 parole del video che vale la pena imparare, con pronuncia e significato:
| Parola | Pronuncia | Significato |
|---|---|---|
| declare verbo | /dɪˈklɛɚ/ | dichiarare |
| drone sostantivo | /dɹoʊn/ | fuco |
| invade verbo | /ɪnˈveɪd/ | invadere |
| assault sostantivo | /əˈsɔlt/ | assalto, attacco |
| capability sostantivo | /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/ | capacità, possibilità |
| unacceptable aggettivo | /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/ | inaccettabile, inammissibile |
| emphasize verbo | /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/ | enfatizzare, sottolineare |
| unlikely aggettivo | /ʌnˈlaɪkli/ | improbabile |
| enormous aggettivo | /ɪˈnɔː.məs/ | enorme, grandissimo |
| moreover avverbio | /mɔːˈɹəʊ.və/ | inoltre |
| circumstance sostantivo | /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/ | circostanza |
| defend verbo | /dɪˈfɪnd/ | difendere, proteggere |
| guarantee sostantivo | /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/ | garanzia |
| assist verbo | /əˈsɪst/ | assistere, aiutare |
| occasion sostantivo | /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/ | occasione |
I phrasal verb che sentirai
| Parola | Significato |
|---|---|
| get across verbo | attraversare |
| pull off verbo | sbrogliare, riuscire |
| build up verbo | accumulare |
Pronuncia a cui fare attenzione
Chi parla usa 11 contrazioni e forme ridotte, come don't, I'm, I'll. Pronunciale nella forma breve, così come le senti.
- I suoni “sh” e “zh”: occasion /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
- Parole lunghe — attenzione all’accento: capability /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, unacceptable /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/, formidable /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/, acceptable /əkˈsɛp.tə.bəl/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
Come esercitarsi con questo video
- Ascolta tutto il video una volta senza parlare e annota le parole che non conosci.
- Fai shadowing frase per frase a velocità normale, ripetendo ognuna finché il tuo ritmo coincide con quello di chi parla.
- Registrati e confronta con l’originale, facendo attenzione a parole come declare, drone, invade.
Cos'è la tecnica dello Shadowing?
Shadowing è una tecnica di apprendimento delle lingue supportata da studi scientifici, originariamente sviluppata per la formazione dei traduttori professionisti e resa popolare dal poliglotta Dr. Alexander Arguelles. Il metodo è semplice ma potente: ascolti un audio in inglese di madrelingua e lo ripeti immediatamente ad alta voce — come un'ombra che segue il parlante con un ritardo di solo 1–2 secondi. A differenza dell'ascolto passivo o degli esercizi di grammatica, lo shadowing costringe il tuo cervello e i muscoli della bocca a elaborare e riprodurre simultaneamente i modelli di discorso reale. La ricerca dimostra che migliora significativamente la precisione della pronuncia, l'intonazione, il ritmo, il discorso connesso, la comprensione dell'ascolto e la fluidità del parlato — rendendolo uno dei metodi più efficaci per la preparazione alla prova di speaking dell'IELTS e per la comunicazione reale in inglese.