Luyện nói tiếng Anh bằng Shadowing qua video: Will China Attack Taiwan? | Ask The Professor
Đang tạo bài học...
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Hi, this is John Mearsheimer.
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In doing my various videos, I often receive questions that people in the audience would like me to answer.
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And I thought what I would do moving forward is try on occasion to answer one of those questions
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and build up an inventory of questions and answers moving forward.
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One question I received recently is,
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will China invade Taiwan in the next decade?
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My answer to that is no, I think it's highly unlikely.
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There's one possible caveat, and I'll explain that at the end.
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The reason I don't think that China will invade Taiwan is
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because they don't have the military capability to do it at an acceptable price.
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The fact is that for China to invade Taiwan, it would have to cross the Taiwan Strait.
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And the Taiwan Strait is a formidable body of water.
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And getting across that body of water with a large amphibious force in the face of resistance would be extremely difficult.
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We know from the historical record, especially from the American campaigns in Europe and in the Pacific during World War II,
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that amphibious operations are very difficult to pull off
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because the forces are sitting on top of the water as they move towards the other side's beaches,
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and they provide a target -rich environment for the defending forces.
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So you have to have the right circumstances, and you have to have formidable forces to pull that off.
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And I don't think that the Chinese at this point in time are capable of pulling off an amphibious operation.
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or an amphibious assault of Taiwan.
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First of all, it's important to emphasize that the Chinese army has not fought a war since 1979.
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So this is not an army that's primed for combat.
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This is not an army that's had a lot of combat experience
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and could pull off with ease a difficult military operation like an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait.
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Moreover, if the United States is involved, and I assume that the United States would be involved,
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the forces that the Chinese would have to overcome would be formidable.
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There would be many thousands of drones in the sky.
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And we know from the Ukraine war that drones have a significant effect on the battlefield,
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and for sure drones would have a significant effect on the ability of those amphibious forces coming from China
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and moving across the Taiwan Strait.
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I think that those drones would do enormous damage to the amphibious forces. And moreover,
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I think that American submarines operating underneath the waters of the Taiwan Strait would wreak havoc on the attacking forces as well.
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So I don't think the Chinese would be able to pull it off
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or will be able to pull it off in the next decade.
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I also think that even if I'm wrong
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and the Chinese were able to get across the Taiwan Strait and land on the beaches of Taiwan,
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they would pay an enormous cost.
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And in effect, it would be a pyrrhic victory.
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I think for the Chinese to do it, to even attempt to attack Taiwan,
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they would have to believe that they could win the war rather quickly and that the consequences would not be too great.
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In other words, the cost of doing so would not be too great.
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So I don't think it's necessary for the Taiwanese and the Americans, and again, I'm assuming the Americans and the Japanese for that matter,
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would assist the Taiwanese in their defense of their country.
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I don't think that they have to guarantee that China will lose to deter the Chinese.
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All they have to do is promise the Chinese that they would pay a huge cost, even if they were to win this war.
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And I think that the Taiwanese, the Americans, and Japanese have that capability, and will have that capability for the next 10 years at least.
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So for all those reasons, I don't imagine that.
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that the Chinese will attempt to conquer Taiwan in the next decade.
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But I want to add one caveat to what I just said.
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I think the Chinese have made it clear that if Taiwan were to declare its independence,
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they would find that categorically unacceptable, and they would attack Taiwan,
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and that would include an amphibious assault.
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So I think that the Chinese, were they to face a Taiwan that had declared its independence,
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would go to war, even if they thought they had to pay an egregious price to defeat Taiwan.
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Taiwan is just so important to China,
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its sacred territory, that the idea of Taiwan declaring its independence is unacceptable, period, end of story.
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And therefore, I think in that circumstance, China would go to war over Taiwan in the next decade.
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But it's important to also emphasize that the United States is fully aware of this danger.
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The United States does not want to fight a war over Taiwan.
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Very important to emphasize that.
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The United States, of course, basically has an ally in Taiwan at this point in time the United States is interested in maintaining the status quo,
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not changing the status quo.
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So the United States wants to avoid war.
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And if the United States even smells any indication that Taiwan is going to declare its independence,
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it will land on the Taiwanese like a ton of bricks
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and make it clear to them that declaring independence or even hinting
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that they're declaring independence is unacceptable so i think that
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when you look at all the various factors
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that underpin this issue it's unlikely
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that china will attempt to invade taiwan in the next decade which of course is all for the good.
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Thank you.
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Từ vựng và ghi chú luyện nói cho bài học này
Video này có 71 câu và 955 từ để luyện shadowing. Phần lời nói dài 7:17. Người nói giữ tốc độ đều, khoảng 131 từ mỗi phút, vừa sức để nói đuổi theo. 83% số từ nằm trong 3.000 từ tiếng Anh thông dụng nhất; phần còn lại nên xem trước khi luyện.
Từ vựng quan trọng trong video
15 từ đáng học trong video, kèm phiên âm và nghĩa:
| Từ | Phiên âm | Nghĩa |
|---|---|---|
| declare động từ | /dɪˈklɛɚ/ | ban bố, ban hành |
| invade động từ | /ɪnˈveɪd/ | xâm lược, xâm chiếm |
| unacceptable tính từ | /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/ | không thể chấp nhận |
| emphasize động từ | /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/ | nhấn mạnh |
| enormous tính từ | /ɪˈnɔː.məs/ | khổng lồ |
| circumstance danh từ | /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/ | hoàn cảnh |
| defend động từ | /dɪˈfɪnd/ | bảo vệ, che chở |
| guarantee danh từ | /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/ | sự bảo đảm |
| assist động từ | /əˈsɪst/ | trợ giúp, giúp |
| overcome động từ | /ˌəʊ.vəˈkʌm/ | vượt qua |
| brick danh từ | /ˈbɹɪk/ | gạch |
| sacred tính từ | /ˈseɪkɹɪd/ | thánh, thần thánh |
| consequence danh từ | /ˈkɑn.sɪ.kwəns/ | hậu quả |
| battlefield danh từ | /ˈbætəlˌfiːld/ | chiến trường, chiến địa |
| alley danh từ | /ˈæl.i/ | hẻm |
Phát âm cần chú ý
Người nói dùng 11 dạng rút gọn, ví dụ don't, I'm, I'll. Hãy nói theo dạng ngắn đúng như bạn nghe.
- Âm “sh” và “zh”: occasion /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
- Từ dài — đặt trọng âm cho đúng: capability /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, unacceptable /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/, formidable /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/, acceptable /əkˈsɛp.tə.bəl/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
Cách luyện với video này
- Nghe hết video một lần, chưa cần nói, và ghi lại những từ bạn chưa biết.
- Nói đuổi từng câu ở tốc độ bình thường, lặp lại mỗi câu đến khi nhịp của bạn khớp với người nói.
- Ghi âm giọng mình rồi so với bản gốc, chú ý các từ như declare, invade, unacceptable.
Phương Pháp Shadowing Là Gì?
Shadowing là kỹ thuật học ngôn ngữ có cơ sở khoa học, ban đầu được phát triển cho chương trình đào tạo phiên dịch viên chuyên nghiệp và được phổ biến rộng rãi bởi nhà đa ngôn ngữ học Dr. Alexander Arguelles. Nguyên lý cốt lõi đơn giản nhưng cực kỳ hiệu quả: bạn nghe tiếng Anh của người bản xứ và lặp lại to ngay lập tức — như một "cái bóng" (shadow) đuổi theo người nói với độ trễ chỉ 1–2 giây. Khác với luyện ngữ pháp hay học từ vựng bị động, Shadowing buộc não bộ và cơ miệng phải đồng thời xử lý và tái tạo ngôn ngữ thực tế. Các nghiên cứu khoa học xác nhận phương pháp này cải thiện đáng kể phát âm, ngữ điệu, nhịp điệu, nối âm, kỹ năng nghe và độ lưu loát khi nói — đặc biệt hiệu quả cho người luyện IELTS Speaking và muốn giao tiếp tiếng Anh tự nhiên như người bản ngữ.