Shadowing Practice: Will China Attack Taiwan? | Ask The Professor - Learn English Speaking with Video
Creando lección...
1
Hi, this is John Mearsheimer.
2
In doing my various videos, I often receive questions that people in the audience would like me to answer.
3
And I thought what I would do moving forward is try on occasion to answer one of those questions
4
and build up an inventory of questions and answers moving forward.
5
One question I received recently is,
6
will China invade Taiwan in the next decade?
7
My answer to that is no, I think it's highly unlikely.
8
There's one possible caveat, and I'll explain that at the end.
9
The reason I don't think that China will invade Taiwan is
10
because they don't have the military capability to do it at an acceptable price.
11
The fact is that for China to invade Taiwan, it would have to cross the Taiwan Strait.
12
And the Taiwan Strait is a formidable body of water.
13
And getting across that body of water with a large amphibious force in the face of resistance would be extremely difficult.
14
We know from the historical record, especially from the American campaigns in Europe and in the Pacific during World War II,
15
that amphibious operations are very difficult to pull off
16
because the forces are sitting on top of the water as they move towards the other side's beaches,
17
and they provide a target -rich environment for the defending forces.
18
So you have to have the right circumstances, and you have to have formidable forces to pull that off.
19
And I don't think that the Chinese at this point in time are capable of pulling off an amphibious operation.
20
or an amphibious assault of Taiwan.
21
First of all, it's important to emphasize that the Chinese army has not fought a war since 1979.
22
So this is not an army that's primed for combat.
23
This is not an army that's had a lot of combat experience
24
and could pull off with ease a difficult military operation like an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait.
25
Moreover, if the United States is involved, and I assume that the United States would be involved,
26
the forces that the Chinese would have to overcome would be formidable.
27
There would be many thousands of drones in the sky.
28
And we know from the Ukraine war that drones have a significant effect on the battlefield,
29
and for sure drones would have a significant effect on the ability of those amphibious forces coming from China
30
and moving across the Taiwan Strait.
31
I think that those drones would do enormous damage to the amphibious forces. And moreover,
32
I think that American submarines operating underneath the waters of the Taiwan Strait would wreak havoc on the attacking forces as well.
33
So I don't think the Chinese would be able to pull it off
34
or will be able to pull it off in the next decade.
35
I also think that even if I'm wrong
36
and the Chinese were able to get across the Taiwan Strait and land on the beaches of Taiwan,
37
they would pay an enormous cost.
38
And in effect, it would be a pyrrhic victory.
39
I think for the Chinese to do it, to even attempt to attack Taiwan,
40
they would have to believe that they could win the war rather quickly and that the consequences would not be too great.
41
In other words, the cost of doing so would not be too great.
42
So I don't think it's necessary for the Taiwanese and the Americans, and again, I'm assuming the Americans and the Japanese for that matter,
43
would assist the Taiwanese in their defense of their country.
44
I don't think that they have to guarantee that China will lose to deter the Chinese.
45
All they have to do is promise the Chinese that they would pay a huge cost, even if they were to win this war.
46
And I think that the Taiwanese, the Americans, and Japanese have that capability, and will have that capability for the next 10 years at least.
47
So for all those reasons, I don't imagine that.
48
that the Chinese will attempt to conquer Taiwan in the next decade.
49
But I want to add one caveat to what I just said.
50
I think the Chinese have made it clear that if Taiwan were to declare its independence,
51
they would find that categorically unacceptable, and they would attack Taiwan,
52
and that would include an amphibious assault.
53
So I think that the Chinese, were they to face a Taiwan that had declared its independence,
54
would go to war, even if they thought they had to pay an egregious price to defeat Taiwan.
55
Taiwan is just so important to China,
56
its sacred territory, that the idea of Taiwan declaring its independence is unacceptable, period, end of story.
57
And therefore, I think in that circumstance, China would go to war over Taiwan in the next decade.
58
But it's important to also emphasize that the United States is fully aware of this danger.
59
The United States does not want to fight a war over Taiwan.
60
Very important to emphasize that.
61
The United States, of course, basically has an ally in Taiwan at this point in time the United States is interested in maintaining the status quo,
62
not changing the status quo.
63
So the United States wants to avoid war.
64
And if the United States even smells any indication that Taiwan is going to declare its independence,
65
it will land on the Taiwanese like a ton of bricks
66
and make it clear to them that declaring independence or even hinting
67
that they're declaring independence is unacceptable so i think that
68
when you look at all the various factors
69
that underpin this issue it's unlikely
70
that china will attempt to invade taiwan in the next decade which of course is all for the good.
71
Thank you.
📺 Mismo canal
✨ Recomendar Video
C15
190 oraciones
Can there ever really be “one China?”
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C13
149 oraciones
Can Humanity Stop A Planet-Killing Asteroid?
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C1588 oraciones
The Iran War Is the Biggest Strategic Blunder in US History (w/ John Mearsheimer) | TCHR
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
B2260 oraciones
Should America Leave NATO?
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C12
65 oraciones
Is War Over? — A Paradox Explained
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
B277 oraciones
The Attack on Pearl Harbor Changed Everything | WWII With Tom Hanks
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C12
450 oraciones
Washington Provoked Turkey and Made a Fatal Mistake — What Happens Now? | Scott Ritter
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C12
150 oraciones
John Mearsheimer: Why Russia Might NUKE Europe
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C12
246 oraciones
The CIA's new tech doesn't make sense
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
B22
91 oraciones
Trung Cộng đang tự cắn xé chính mình | Trung Quốc Không Kiểm Duyệt
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C14
44 oraciones
The Tribute System: The new World Order
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepBusiness English
C13
215 oraciones
Joe & Matt Walsh Go Back and Forth on the Moon Landing Conspiracy
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
Vocabulario y notas de pronunciación para esta lección
Este vídeo tiene 71 frases y 955 palabras para practicar shadowing. La parte hablada dura 7:17. El hablante mantiene un ritmo constante de unas 131 palabras por minuto, cómodo para el shadowing. El 83 % de las palabras está entre las 3.000 más comunes del inglés; conviene repasar el resto antes de empezar.
Vocabulario clave de este vídeo
15 palabras del vídeo que vale la pena aprender, con su pronunciación y significado:
| Palabra | Pronunciación | Significado |
|---|---|---|
| declare verbo | /dɪˈklɛɚ/ | explicar, aclarar |
| drone sustantivo | /dɹoʊn/ | zángano, abejón |
| invade verbo | /ɪnˈveɪd/ | invadir |
| assault sustantivo | /əˈsɔlt/ | asalto, acometimiento |
| unacceptable adjetivo | /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/ | inaceptable, no ser de recibo |
| emphasize verbo | /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/ | enfatizar, hacer hincapié |
| formidable adjetivo | /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/ | formidable |
| unlikely adjetivo | /ʌnˈlaɪkli/ | improbable |
| enormous adjetivo | /ɪˈnɔː.məs/ | enorme, ingente |
| circumstance sustantivo | /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/ | circunstancia, tesitura |
| defend verbo | /dɪˈfɪnd/ | defender, defensar |
| guarantee sustantivo | /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/ | garantía, caución |
| assist verbo | /əˈsɪst/ | ayudar, asistir |
| occasion sustantivo | /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/ | ocasión |
| ease verbo | /iz/ | aliviar |
Phrasal verbs que vas a escuchar
| Palabra | Significado |
|---|---|
| get across verbo | cruzar |
| move forward verbo | ir adelante, adelantar |
| pull off verbo | llevarse el gato al agua, poner una pica en Flandes |
Pronunciación a tener en cuenta
El hablante usa 11 contracciones y formas reducidas, como don't, I'm, I'll. Dilas en su forma corta, tal como las oyes.
- Los sonidos de “sh” y “zh”: occasion /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
- Palabras largas — cuida el acento: capability /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, unacceptable /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/, formidable /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/, acceptable /əkˈsɛp.tə.bəl/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
Cómo practicar con este vídeo
- Escucha el vídeo entero una vez sin hablar y anota las palabras que no conoces.
- Haz shadowing frase por frase a velocidad normal, repitiendo cada una hasta que tu ritmo coincida con el del hablante.
- Grábate y compara con el original, prestando atención a palabras como declare, drone, invade.
¿Qué es la Técnica de Shadowing?
Shadowing es una técnica de aprendizaje de idiomas respaldada por la ciencia, desarrollada originalmente para la formación de intérpretes profesionales y popularizada por el políglota Dr. Alexander Arguelles. El método es simple pero poderoso: escuchas audio en inglés nativo y lo repites en voz alta de inmediato, como una sombra que sigue al hablante con solo 1-2 segundos de retraso. A diferencia de la escucha pasiva o los ejercicios de gramática, el shadowing obliga a tu cerebro y músculos de la boca a procesar y reproducir simultáneamente patrones de habla reales. Las investigaciones muestran que mejora significativamente la precisión de la pronunciación, la entonación, el ritmo, el habla conectada, la comprensión auditiva y la fluidez al hablar, convirtiéndola en una de las metodologías más efectivas para la preparación del IELTS Speaking y la comunicación en inglés en el mundo real.