Shadowing Practice: Will China Attack Taiwan? | Ask The Professor - Learn English Speaking with Video
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71 משפטים
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Hi, this is John Mearsheimer.
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In doing my various videos, I often receive questions that people in the audience would like me to answer.
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And I thought what I would do moving forward is try on occasion to answer one of those questions
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and build up an inventory of questions and answers moving forward.
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One question I received recently is,
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will China invade Taiwan in the next decade?
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My answer to that is no, I think it's highly unlikely.
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There's one possible caveat, and I'll explain that at the end.
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The reason I don't think that China will invade Taiwan is
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because they don't have the military capability to do it at an acceptable price.
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The fact is that for China to invade Taiwan, it would have to cross the Taiwan Strait.
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And the Taiwan Strait is a formidable body of water.
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And getting across that body of water with a large amphibious force in the face of resistance would be extremely difficult.
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We know from the historical record, especially from the American campaigns in Europe and in the Pacific during World War II,
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that amphibious operations are very difficult to pull off
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because the forces are sitting on top of the water as they move towards the other side's beaches,
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and they provide a target -rich environment for the defending forces.
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So you have to have the right circumstances, and you have to have formidable forces to pull that off.
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And I don't think that the Chinese at this point in time are capable of pulling off an amphibious operation.
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or an amphibious assault of Taiwan.
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First of all, it's important to emphasize that the Chinese army has not fought a war since 1979.
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So this is not an army that's primed for combat.
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This is not an army that's had a lot of combat experience
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and could pull off with ease a difficult military operation like an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait.
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Moreover, if the United States is involved, and I assume that the United States would be involved,
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the forces that the Chinese would have to overcome would be formidable.
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There would be many thousands of drones in the sky.
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And we know from the Ukraine war that drones have a significant effect on the battlefield,
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and for sure drones would have a significant effect on the ability of those amphibious forces coming from China
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and moving across the Taiwan Strait.
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I think that those drones would do enormous damage to the amphibious forces. And moreover,
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I think that American submarines operating underneath the waters of the Taiwan Strait would wreak havoc on the attacking forces as well.
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So I don't think the Chinese would be able to pull it off
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or will be able to pull it off in the next decade.
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I also think that even if I'm wrong
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and the Chinese were able to get across the Taiwan Strait and land on the beaches of Taiwan,
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they would pay an enormous cost.
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And in effect, it would be a pyrrhic victory.
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I think for the Chinese to do it, to even attempt to attack Taiwan,
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they would have to believe that they could win the war rather quickly and that the consequences would not be too great.
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In other words, the cost of doing so would not be too great.
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So I don't think it's necessary for the Taiwanese and the Americans, and again, I'm assuming the Americans and the Japanese for that matter,
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would assist the Taiwanese in their defense of their country.
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I don't think that they have to guarantee that China will lose to deter the Chinese.
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All they have to do is promise the Chinese that they would pay a huge cost, even if they were to win this war.
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And I think that the Taiwanese, the Americans, and Japanese have that capability, and will have that capability for the next 10 years at least.
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So for all those reasons, I don't imagine that.
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that the Chinese will attempt to conquer Taiwan in the next decade.
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But I want to add one caveat to what I just said.
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I think the Chinese have made it clear that if Taiwan were to declare its independence,
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they would find that categorically unacceptable, and they would attack Taiwan,
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and that would include an amphibious assault.
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So I think that the Chinese, were they to face a Taiwan that had declared its independence,
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would go to war, even if they thought they had to pay an egregious price to defeat Taiwan.
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Taiwan is just so important to China,
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its sacred territory, that the idea of Taiwan declaring its independence is unacceptable, period, end of story.
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And therefore, I think in that circumstance, China would go to war over Taiwan in the next decade.
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But it's important to also emphasize that the United States is fully aware of this danger.
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The United States does not want to fight a war over Taiwan.
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Very important to emphasize that.
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The United States, of course, basically has an ally in Taiwan at this point in time the United States is interested in maintaining the status quo,
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not changing the status quo.
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So the United States wants to avoid war.
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And if the United States even smells any indication that Taiwan is going to declare its independence,
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it will land on the Taiwanese like a ton of bricks
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and make it clear to them that declaring independence or even hinting
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that they're declaring independence is unacceptable so i think that
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when you look at all the various factors
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that underpin this issue it's unlikely
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that china will attempt to invade taiwan in the next decade which of course is all for the good.
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Thank you.
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אוצר מילים והערות הגייה לשיעור הזה
שיעור הדיבור הזה ברמה C1 מבוסס על הסרטון “Will China Attack Taiwan?”. המילים שחוזרות הכי הרבה: taiwan, Chinese, amphibious, china, force. בסרטון הזה יש 71 משפטים ו-955 מילים לתרגול Shadowing. הדיבור נמשך 7:17. הדובר שומר על קצב יציב של כ-131 מילים בדקה, קצב נוח לתרגול Shadowing. 83% מהמילים נמצאות בין 3,000 המילים הנפוצות ביותר באנגלית; כדאי ללמוד את השאר לפני שמתחילים.
אוצר מילים מרכזי בסרטון הזה
10 המילים המתקדמות ביותר בסרטון, עם ההגייה והמשמעות שלהן:
| מילה | הגייה | משמעות |
|---|---|---|
| invade פועל | /ɪnˈveɪd/ | פָּלַשׁ |
| caveat שם עצם | /ˈkæviɑt/ | אזהרה |
| circumstance שם עצם | /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/ | נסיבות |
| conquer פועל | /ˈkɑŋkɚ/ | כָּבַשׁ |
| submarine שם עצם | /sʌb.məˈɹiːn/ | צוֹלֶלֶת |
| alley שם עצם | /ˈæl.i/ | סִמְטָה |
| battlefield שם עצם | /ˈbætəlˌfiːld/ | שְׂדֵה קְרָב |
| indication שם עצם | /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/ | סימן, עות |
| hint שם עצם | /hɪnt/ | רֶמֶֶז |
| consequence שם עצם | /ˈkɑn.sɪ.kwəns/ | תּוֹצָאָה, הַשְׁלָכָה |
הגייה ששווה לשים לב אליה
הדובר משתמש ב-11 קיצורים וצורות מקוצרות, כמו don't, I'm, I'll. אמרו אותם בצורה הקצרה, כפי שאתם שומעים אותם.
- מילים ארוכות — שימו לב להטעמה: amphibious /æmˈfɪbi.əs/, formidable /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/, unacceptable /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/, capability /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, categorically /kæt.əˈɡɒ.ɹɪk.(ə.)li/
צלילים שדוברי עברית מתקשים בהם:
- /æ/ — פתוח יותר מה-“אֶ” העברית, לא כמו “a” ב-“cup”: amphibious /æmˈfɪbi.əs/, unacceptable /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/, caveat /ˈkæviɑt/, circumstance /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/, categorically /kæt.əˈɡɒ.ɹɪk.(ə.)li/
- /r/ — הלשון לא נוגעת בשום מקום, לא ה-“ר” הגרונית: drone /dɹoʊn/, formidable /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/, categorically /kæt.əˈɡɒ.ɹɪk.(ə.)li/, egregious /ɪˈɡɹiː.d͡ʒəs/, pyrrhic /ˈpɪ.ɹɪk/
- עיצור קולי בסוף מילה — /b/, /d/, /g/, /z/, /v/ בלי להפוך אותם לאטומים: invade /ɪnˈveɪd/, emphasize /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/, battlefield /ˈbætəlˌfiːld/
איך לתרגל עם הסרטון הזה
- הקשיבו לכל הסרטון פעם אחת בלי לדבר, ורשמו את המילים שאתם לא מכירים.
- תרגלו Shadowing משפט אחר משפט במהירות רגילה, וחזרו על כל משפט עד שהקצב שלכם תואם את הדובר.
- הקליטו את עצמכם והשוו למקור, תוך תשומת לב למילים כמו invade, caveat, circumstance.
מהי טכניקת השאדואינג?
שאדואינג היא טכניקת למידת שפה מבוססת מדע שפותחה במקור להכשרת מתורגמנים מקצועיים ופופולרית על ידי הפוליגלוט ד"ר אלכסנדר ארגואלס. השיטה פשוטה אך עוצמתית: אתה מקשיב לאודיו באנגלית ילידית וחוזר עליו בקול רם מיד — כמו צל העוקב אחרי הדובר עם עיכוב של 1–2 שניות בלבד. בניגוד להאזנה פסיבית או תרגילי דקדוק, שאדואינג מכריח את המוח והשרירים בפה לעבד ולשחזר דפוסי דיבור אמיתיים בו זמנית. מחקרים מראים שזה משפר משמעותית את דיוק ההגייה, האינטונציה, הקצב, הדיבור המחובר, הבנת השמיעה ושטף הדיבור — מה שהופך אותו לאחת השיטות היעילות ביותר להכנה לIELTS Speaking ולתקשורת באנגלית בעולם האמיתי.