Shadowing Practice: Will China Attack Taiwan? | Ask The Professor - Learn English Speaking with Video
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Hi, this is John Mearsheimer.
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In doing my various videos, I often receive questions that people in the audience would like me to answer.
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And I thought what I would do moving forward is try on occasion to answer one of those questions
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and build up an inventory of questions and answers moving forward.
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One question I received recently is,
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will China invade Taiwan in the next decade?
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My answer to that is no, I think it's highly unlikely.
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There's one possible caveat, and I'll explain that at the end.
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The reason I don't think that China will invade Taiwan is
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because they don't have the military capability to do it at an acceptable price.
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The fact is that for China to invade Taiwan, it would have to cross the Taiwan Strait.
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And the Taiwan Strait is a formidable body of water.
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And getting across that body of water with a large amphibious force in the face of resistance would be extremely difficult.
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We know from the historical record, especially from the American campaigns in Europe and in the Pacific during World War II,
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that amphibious operations are very difficult to pull off
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because the forces are sitting on top of the water as they move towards the other side's beaches,
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and they provide a target -rich environment for the defending forces.
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So you have to have the right circumstances, and you have to have formidable forces to pull that off.
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And I don't think that the Chinese at this point in time are capable of pulling off an amphibious operation.
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or an amphibious assault of Taiwan.
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First of all, it's important to emphasize that the Chinese army has not fought a war since 1979.
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So this is not an army that's primed for combat.
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This is not an army that's had a lot of combat experience
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and could pull off with ease a difficult military operation like an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait.
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Moreover, if the United States is involved, and I assume that the United States would be involved,
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the forces that the Chinese would have to overcome would be formidable.
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There would be many thousands of drones in the sky.
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And we know from the Ukraine war that drones have a significant effect on the battlefield,
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and for sure drones would have a significant effect on the ability of those amphibious forces coming from China
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and moving across the Taiwan Strait.
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I think that those drones would do enormous damage to the amphibious forces. And moreover,
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I think that American submarines operating underneath the waters of the Taiwan Strait would wreak havoc on the attacking forces as well.
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So I don't think the Chinese would be able to pull it off
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or will be able to pull it off in the next decade.
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I also think that even if I'm wrong
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and the Chinese were able to get across the Taiwan Strait and land on the beaches of Taiwan,
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they would pay an enormous cost.
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And in effect, it would be a pyrrhic victory.
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I think for the Chinese to do it, to even attempt to attack Taiwan,
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they would have to believe that they could win the war rather quickly and that the consequences would not be too great.
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In other words, the cost of doing so would not be too great.
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So I don't think it's necessary for the Taiwanese and the Americans, and again, I'm assuming the Americans and the Japanese for that matter,
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would assist the Taiwanese in their defense of their country.
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I don't think that they have to guarantee that China will lose to deter the Chinese.
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All they have to do is promise the Chinese that they would pay a huge cost, even if they were to win this war.
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And I think that the Taiwanese, the Americans, and Japanese have that capability, and will have that capability for the next 10 years at least.
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So for all those reasons, I don't imagine that.
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that the Chinese will attempt to conquer Taiwan in the next decade.
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But I want to add one caveat to what I just said.
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I think the Chinese have made it clear that if Taiwan were to declare its independence,
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they would find that categorically unacceptable, and they would attack Taiwan,
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and that would include an amphibious assault.
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So I think that the Chinese, were they to face a Taiwan that had declared its independence,
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would go to war, even if they thought they had to pay an egregious price to defeat Taiwan.
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Taiwan is just so important to China,
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its sacred territory, that the idea of Taiwan declaring its independence is unacceptable, period, end of story.
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And therefore, I think in that circumstance, China would go to war over Taiwan in the next decade.
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But it's important to also emphasize that the United States is fully aware of this danger.
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The United States does not want to fight a war over Taiwan.
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Very important to emphasize that.
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The United States, of course, basically has an ally in Taiwan at this point in time the United States is interested in maintaining the status quo,
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not changing the status quo.
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So the United States wants to avoid war.
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And if the United States even smells any indication that Taiwan is going to declare its independence,
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it will land on the Taiwanese like a ton of bricks
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and make it clear to them that declaring independence or even hinting
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that they're declaring independence is unacceptable so i think that
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when you look at all the various factors
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that underpin this issue it's unlikely
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that china will attempt to invade taiwan in the next decade which of course is all for the good.
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Thank you.
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Bu dersin kelimeleri ve konuşma notları
Bu videoda gölgeleme çalışması için 71 cümle ve 955 kelime var. Konuşma bölümü 7:17 sürüyor. Konuşmacı dakikada yaklaşık 131 kelimelik dengeli bir hızla konuşuyor; gölgeleme için rahat bir tempo. Kelimelerin %83’i İngilizcede en sık kullanılan 3.000 kelime arasında; geri kalanına başlamadan önce bakmakta fayda var.
Bu videodaki önemli kelimeler
Videodan öğrenmeye değer 15 kelime, telaffuzu ve anlamıyla:
| Kelime | Telaffuz | Anlam |
|---|---|---|
| declare fiil | /dɪˈklɛɚ/ | beyan etmek, deklare etmek |
| drone isim | /dɹoʊn/ | saka, bodat |
| invade fiil | /ɪnˈveɪd/ | istila etmek |
| assault isim | /əˈsɔlt/ | saldırı |
| emphasize fiil | /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/ | vurgulamak |
| formidable sıfat | /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/ | ürkütücü |
| enormous sıfat | /ɪˈnɔː.məs/ | kocaman |
| moreover zarf | /mɔːˈɹəʊ.və/ | buna ilaveten, dahası |
| circumstance isim | /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/ | durum, hâl |
| defend fiil | /dɪˈfɪnd/ | savunmak, korumak |
| guarantee isim | /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/ | garanti, güvence |
| assist fiil | /əˈsɪst/ | asist |
| acceptable sıfat | /əkˈsɛp.tə.bəl/ | kabul edilebilir, uygun |
| overcome fiil | /ˌəʊ.vəˈkʌm/ | yenmek, atlatmak |
| brick isim | /ˈbɹɪk/ | tuğla |
Dikkat edilecek telaffuzlar
Konuşmacı don't, I'm, I'll gibi kısaltılmış biçimleri 11 kez kullanıyor. Bunları duyduğunuz gibi kısa söyleyin.
- “sh” ve “zh” sesleri: occasion /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
- Uzun kelimeler — vurguyu doğru yere koyun: capability /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, unacceptable /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/, formidable /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/, acceptable /əkˈsɛp.tə.bəl/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
Bu videoyla nasıl çalışılır
- Videonun tamamını konuşmadan bir kez dinleyin ve bilmediğiniz kelimeleri not edin.
- Normal hızda cümle cümle tekrar edin; ritminiz konuşmacıyla aynı olana kadar her cümleyi yineleyin.
- Kendinizi kaydedin ve orijinaliyle karşılaştırın; declare, drone, invade gibi kelimelere özellikle dikkat edin.
Gölgeleme Tekniği Nedir?
Gölgeleme, başlangıçta profesyonel tercüman eğitimi için geliştirilen ve çok dilli Dr. Alexander Arguelles tarafından popüler hale getirilen, bilim destekli bir dil öğrenme tekniğidir. Yöntem basit ama güçlüdür: ana dili İngilizce olan bir sesi dinler ve hemen yüksek sesle tekrar edersiniz — konuşmacıyı 1-2 saniye gecikmeyle takip eden bir gölge gibi. Pasif dinleme veya dilbilgisi alıştırmalarının aksine, gölgeleme beyninizi ve ağız kaslarınızı gerçek konuşma kalıplarını eşzamanlı olarak işlemeye ve yeniden üretmeye zorlar. Araştırmalar, telaffuz doğruluğu, tonlama, ritim, bağlı konuşma, dinleme anlama ve konuşma akıcılığını önemli ölçüde geliştirdiğini göstermektedir — bu da onu IELTS Konuşma hazırlığı ve gerçek dünya İngilizce iletişimi için en etkili yöntemlerden biri yapar.