쉐도잉 연습: Will China Attack Taiwan? | Ask The Professor - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기
레슨 만드는 중...
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Hi, this is John Mearsheimer.
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In doing my various videos, I often receive questions that people in the audience would like me to answer.
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And I thought what I would do moving forward is try on occasion to answer one of those questions
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and build up an inventory of questions and answers moving forward.
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One question I received recently is,
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will China invade Taiwan in the next decade?
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My answer to that is no, I think it's highly unlikely.
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There's one possible caveat, and I'll explain that at the end.
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The reason I don't think that China will invade Taiwan is
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because they don't have the military capability to do it at an acceptable price.
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The fact is that for China to invade Taiwan, it would have to cross the Taiwan Strait.
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And the Taiwan Strait is a formidable body of water.
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And getting across that body of water with a large amphibious force in the face of resistance would be extremely difficult.
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We know from the historical record, especially from the American campaigns in Europe and in the Pacific during World War II,
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that amphibious operations are very difficult to pull off
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because the forces are sitting on top of the water as they move towards the other side's beaches,
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and they provide a target -rich environment for the defending forces.
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So you have to have the right circumstances, and you have to have formidable forces to pull that off.
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And I don't think that the Chinese at this point in time are capable of pulling off an amphibious operation.
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or an amphibious assault of Taiwan.
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First of all, it's important to emphasize that the Chinese army has not fought a war since 1979.
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So this is not an army that's primed for combat.
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This is not an army that's had a lot of combat experience
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and could pull off with ease a difficult military operation like an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait.
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Moreover, if the United States is involved, and I assume that the United States would be involved,
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the forces that the Chinese would have to overcome would be formidable.
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There would be many thousands of drones in the sky.
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And we know from the Ukraine war that drones have a significant effect on the battlefield,
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and for sure drones would have a significant effect on the ability of those amphibious forces coming from China
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and moving across the Taiwan Strait.
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I think that those drones would do enormous damage to the amphibious forces. And moreover,
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I think that American submarines operating underneath the waters of the Taiwan Strait would wreak havoc on the attacking forces as well.
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So I don't think the Chinese would be able to pull it off
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or will be able to pull it off in the next decade.
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I also think that even if I'm wrong
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and the Chinese were able to get across the Taiwan Strait and land on the beaches of Taiwan,
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they would pay an enormous cost.
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And in effect, it would be a pyrrhic victory.
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I think for the Chinese to do it, to even attempt to attack Taiwan,
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they would have to believe that they could win the war rather quickly and that the consequences would not be too great.
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In other words, the cost of doing so would not be too great.
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So I don't think it's necessary for the Taiwanese and the Americans, and again, I'm assuming the Americans and the Japanese for that matter,
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would assist the Taiwanese in their defense of their country.
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I don't think that they have to guarantee that China will lose to deter the Chinese.
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All they have to do is promise the Chinese that they would pay a huge cost, even if they were to win this war.
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And I think that the Taiwanese, the Americans, and Japanese have that capability, and will have that capability for the next 10 years at least.
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So for all those reasons, I don't imagine that.
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that the Chinese will attempt to conquer Taiwan in the next decade.
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But I want to add one caveat to what I just said.
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I think the Chinese have made it clear that if Taiwan were to declare its independence,
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they would find that categorically unacceptable, and they would attack Taiwan,
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and that would include an amphibious assault.
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So I think that the Chinese, were they to face a Taiwan that had declared its independence,
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would go to war, even if they thought they had to pay an egregious price to defeat Taiwan.
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Taiwan is just so important to China,
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its sacred territory, that the idea of Taiwan declaring its independence is unacceptable, period, end of story.
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And therefore, I think in that circumstance, China would go to war over Taiwan in the next decade.
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But it's important to also emphasize that the United States is fully aware of this danger.
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The United States does not want to fight a war over Taiwan.
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Very important to emphasize that.
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The United States, of course, basically has an ally in Taiwan at this point in time the United States is interested in maintaining the status quo,
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not changing the status quo.
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So the United States wants to avoid war.
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And if the United States even smells any indication that Taiwan is going to declare its independence,
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it will land on the Taiwanese like a ton of bricks
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and make it clear to them that declaring independence or even hinting
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that they're declaring independence is unacceptable so i think that
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when you look at all the various factors
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that underpin this issue it's unlikely
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that china will attempt to invade taiwan in the next decade which of course is all for the good.
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Thank you.
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이 레슨의 어휘와 말하기 포인트
이 영상에는 섀도잉할 문장 71개와 단어 955개가 있습니다. 말하는 구간의 길이는 7:17입니다. 화자는 분당 약 131단어의 일정한 속도로 말해서 섀도잉하기에 편한 속도입니다. 단어의 83%가 영어에서 가장 많이 쓰이는 3,000단어에 속합니다. 나머지는 연습 전에 미리 확인해 두세요.
이 영상의 핵심 어휘
영상에 나오는 익혀 둘 만한 단어 15개를 발음, 뜻과 함께 정리했습니다.
| 단어 | 발음 | 뜻 |
|---|---|---|
| declare 동사 | /dɪˈklɛɚ/ | 선언하다 |
| drone 명사 | /dɹoʊn/ | 숫벌, 수벌 |
| invade 동사 | /ɪnˈveɪd/ | 침입하다, 침략하다 |
| assault 명사 | /əˈsɔlt/ | 돌격, 공격 |
| emphasize 동사 | /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/ | 강조(强調)하다 |
| enormous 형용사 | /ɪˈnɔː.məs/ | 거대하다 |
| moreover 부사 | /mɔːˈɹəʊ.və/ | 게다가, 더욱이 |
| circumstance 명사 | /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/ | 상황 |
| defend 동사 | /dɪˈfɪnd/ | 방어하다 |
| guarantee 명사 | /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/ | 보증 |
| assist 동사 | /əˈsɪst/ | 돕다 |
| occasion 명사 | /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/ | 기회, 경우 |
| overcome 동사 | /ˌəʊ.vəˈkʌm/ | 극복하다, 이겨내다 |
| brick 명사 | /ˈbɹɪk/ | 벽돌, 연와 |
| inventory 명사 | /ˈɪn.vən.tɹi/ | 재고 |
주의할 발음
화자는 don't, I'm, I'll 같은 축약형과 약화된 형태를 11번 사용합니다. 들리는 대로 짧게 발음하세요.
- “sh”와 “zh” 소리: occasion /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
- 긴 단어 — 강세 위치에 주의: capability /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, unacceptable /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/, formidable /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/, acceptable /əkˈsɛp.tə.bəl/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
이 영상으로 연습하는 방법
- 먼저 말하지 않고 영상을 끝까지 듣고 모르는 단어를 적어 둡니다.
- 보통 속도로 한 문장씩 섀도잉하고, 화자의 리듬과 맞을 때까지 반복합니다.
- 자신의 목소리를 녹음해 원본과 비교하고, declare, drone, invade 같은 단어에 특히 주의합니다.
쉐도잉이란? 영어 실력을 빠르게 키우는 과학적 방법
쉐도잉(Shadowing)은 원래 전문 통역사 훈련을 위해 개발된 언어 학습 기법으로, 다언어 학자인 Dr. Alexander Arguelles에 의해 대중화된 방법입니다. 핵심 원리는 간단하지만 매우 강력합니다: 원어민의 영어를 들으면서 1~2초의 짧은 지연으로 즉시 소리 내어 따라 말하는 것——마치 '그림자(shadow)'처럼 화자를 따라가는 것입니다. 문법 공부나 수동적인 청취와 달리, 쉐도잉은 뇌와 입 근육이 동시에 실시간으로 영어를 처리하고 재현하도록 훈련합니다. 연구에 따르면 이 방법은 발음 정확도, 억양, 리듬, 연음, 청취력, 말하기 유창성을 크게 향상시킵니다. IELTS 스피킹 준비와 자연스러운 영어 소통을 원하는 분들에게 특히 효과적입니다.