跟讀練習: Will China Attack Taiwan? | Ask The Professor - 通過影片學習英語口語
選擇練習模式
每種模式都會開啟全屏練習室。
71 句
如果句子過短或過長，請點選 Edit 進行調整。
1
Hi, this is John Mearsheimer.
2
In doing my various videos, I often receive questions that people in the audience would like me to answer.
3
And I thought what I would do moving forward is try on occasion to answer one of those questions
4
and build up an inventory of questions and answers moving forward.
5
One question I received recently is,
6
will China invade Taiwan in the next decade?
7
My answer to that is no, I think it's highly unlikely.
8
There's one possible caveat, and I'll explain that at the end.
9
The reason I don't think that China will invade Taiwan is
10
because they don't have the military capability to do it at an acceptable price.
11
The fact is that for China to invade Taiwan, it would have to cross the Taiwan Strait.
12
And the Taiwan Strait is a formidable body of water.
13
And getting across that body of water with a large amphibious force in the face of resistance would be extremely difficult.
14
We know from the historical record, especially from the American campaigns in Europe and in the Pacific during World War II,
15
that amphibious operations are very difficult to pull off
16
because the forces are sitting on top of the water as they move towards the other side's beaches,
17
and they provide a target -rich environment for the defending forces.
18
So you have to have the right circumstances, and you have to have formidable forces to pull that off.
19
And I don't think that the Chinese at this point in time are capable of pulling off an amphibious operation.
20
or an amphibious assault of Taiwan.
21
First of all, it's important to emphasize that the Chinese army has not fought a war since 1979.
22
So this is not an army that's primed for combat.
23
This is not an army that's had a lot of combat experience
24
and could pull off with ease a difficult military operation like an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait.
25
Moreover, if the United States is involved, and I assume that the United States would be involved,
26
the forces that the Chinese would have to overcome would be formidable.
27
There would be many thousands of drones in the sky.
28
And we know from the Ukraine war that drones have a significant effect on the battlefield,
29
and for sure drones would have a significant effect on the ability of those amphibious forces coming from China
30
and moving across the Taiwan Strait.
31
I think that those drones would do enormous damage to the amphibious forces. And moreover,
32
I think that American submarines operating underneath the waters of the Taiwan Strait would wreak havoc on the attacking forces as well.
33
So I don't think the Chinese would be able to pull it off
34
or will be able to pull it off in the next decade.
35
I also think that even if I'm wrong
36
and the Chinese were able to get across the Taiwan Strait and land on the beaches of Taiwan,
37
they would pay an enormous cost.
38
And in effect, it would be a pyrrhic victory.
39
I think for the Chinese to do it, to even attempt to attack Taiwan,
40
they would have to believe that they could win the war rather quickly and that the consequences would not be too great.
41
In other words, the cost of doing so would not be too great.
42
So I don't think it's necessary for the Taiwanese and the Americans, and again, I'm assuming the Americans and the Japanese for that matter,
43
would assist the Taiwanese in their defense of their country.
44
I don't think that they have to guarantee that China will lose to deter the Chinese.
45
All they have to do is promise the Chinese that they would pay a huge cost, even if they were to win this war.
46
And I think that the Taiwanese, the Americans, and Japanese have that capability, and will have that capability for the next 10 years at least.
47
So for all those reasons, I don't imagine that.
48
that the Chinese will attempt to conquer Taiwan in the next decade.
49
But I want to add one caveat to what I just said.
50
I think the Chinese have made it clear that if Taiwan were to declare its independence,
51
they would find that categorically unacceptable, and they would attack Taiwan,
52
and that would include an amphibious assault.
53
So I think that the Chinese, were they to face a Taiwan that had declared its independence,
54
would go to war, even if they thought they had to pay an egregious price to defeat Taiwan.
55
Taiwan is just so important to China,
56
its sacred territory, that the idea of Taiwan declaring its independence is unacceptable, period, end of story.
57
And therefore, I think in that circumstance, China would go to war over Taiwan in the next decade.
58
But it's important to also emphasize that the United States is fully aware of this danger.
59
The United States does not want to fight a war over Taiwan.
60
Very important to emphasize that.
61
The United States, of course, basically has an ally in Taiwan at this point in time the United States is interested in maintaining the status quo,
62
not changing the status quo.
63
So the United States wants to avoid war.
64
And if the United States even smells any indication that Taiwan is going to declare its independence,
65
it will land on the Taiwanese like a ton of bricks
66
and make it clear to them that declaring independence or even hinting
67
that they're declaring independence is unacceptable so i think that
68
when you look at all the various factors
69
that underpin this issue it's unlikely
70
that china will attempt to invade taiwan in the next decade which of course is all for the good.
71
Thank you.
同頻道
FOR YOU
推薦影片
C1221 句
Trita Parsi: Trump’s Iran Strategy Is A CATASTROPHE
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C13
742 句
The REAL reason China built so much
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B24
68 句
What Happens If China Invades Taiwan? Elon Musk's AI Warning
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B2260 句
Should America Leave NATO?
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
117 句
How China Could Fall Into the Middle-Income Trap
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
121 句
Why the Americans were so feared by The Japanese
Daily ConversationUniversity Students
B23
283 句
Cocky MAGA Kid Can't DEFEND Trump's Actions and RUNS AWAY
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C12
65 句
Is War Over? — A Paradox Explained
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
102 句
War Expert Reveals BRUTAL Truth About Iran’s Power Grab
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C1324 句
Exclusive Interview: Jeffrey Sachs on China’s Global Role: Growth, Balance, and Cooperation
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C15
190 句
Can there ever really be “one China?”
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
本課的詞彙與口語要點
這段影片共有 71 個句子、955 個單詞可供跟讀。 講話部分時長為 7:17。 說話人語速平穩，每分鐘約 131 個詞，很適合跟讀。 83% 的單詞屬於英語最常用的 3,000 詞，其餘的詞建議在練習前先學一下。
影片中的重點詞彙
影片中 15 個值得學習的單詞，附發音和釋義：
| 單詞 | 發音 | 釋義 |
|---|---|---|
| declare 動詞 | /dɪˈklɛɚ/ | 宣佈 |
| drone 名詞 | /dɹoʊn/ | 雄蜂 |
| invade 動詞 | /ɪnˈveɪd/ | 入侵, 侵入 |
| assault 名詞 | /əˈsɔlt/ | 突擊 /突擊, 攻擊 /攻擊 |
| unacceptable 形容詞 | /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/ | 無可接受 /無可接受 |
| emphasize 動詞 | /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/ | 強調 /強調, 著重 |
| formidable 形容詞 | /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/ | 可畏, 令人生畏的 |
| unlikely 形容詞 | /ʌnˈlaɪkli/ | 不可能的 |
| enormous 形容詞 | /ɪˈnɔː.məs/ | 巨大的 |
| moreover 副詞 | /mɔːˈɹəʊ.və/ | 並且 /並且, 而且 |
| circumstance 名詞 | /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/ | 情況 /情況, 狀態 /狀態 |
| defend 動詞 | /dɪˈfɪnd/ | 保衛 /保衛, 守衛 /守衛 |
| guarantee 名詞 | /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/ | 保證 /保證 |
| assist 動詞 | /əˈsɪst/ | 幫 /幫, 幫助 /幫助 |
| occasion 名詞 | /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/ | 場合 /場合, 機會 /機會 |
需要注意的發音
說話人用了 11 次縮略和弱讀形式，例如 don't, I'm, I'll。請按聽到的簡短形式來說。
- “sh” 和 “zh” 音: occasion /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
- 長單詞——注意重音位置: capability /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, unacceptable /ˌʌn.ækˈsɛp.tə.bl̩/, formidable /ˈfɔɹmɪdəbəl/, acceptable /əkˈsɛp.tə.bəl/, indication /ɪndɪˈkeɪʃən/
如何用這段影片練習
- 先完整聽一遍影片，不要開口，記下不認識的單詞。
- 用正常速度逐句跟讀，每句重複到你的節奏與說話人一致為止。
- 錄下自己的聲音並與原聲對比，特別注意 declare, drone, invade 這類單詞。
什麼是跟讀法？
跟讀法 (Shadowing) 是一種有科學依據的語言學習技巧，最初開發用於專業口譯員的培訓，並由多語言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。這個方法簡單而強大：您在聽英語母語原聲的同時立即大聲重複——就像是一個延遲1-2秒緊跟說話者的影子。與被動聽力或語法練習不同，跟讀法強迫您的大腦和口腔肌肉同時處理並模模擬實的講話模式。研究表明它能顯著提高發音準確性，語調，節奏，連讀，聽力理解和口語流利度——使其成為雅思口語備考和真實英語交流最有效的方法之一。