Shadowing Practice: Why Workers Stopped Getting Big Raises - Learn English Speaking with Video
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Kevin Warsh was on Capitol Hill as part of the semiannual monetary policy hearings that Congress holds.
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We're delighted that you're here.
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Your report to Congress is important, and we do count on the factual nature of that.
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The cost of living was a big theme in Bush's testimony.
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What I'm hearing from people in my state is that it's not necessarily full employment with good wages.
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Warsh himself acknowledged a number of times that inflation has been higher than 2% for 63 consecutive months.
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We think a lot about real take home pay.
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The part that the Fed can do a lot about is the real part. If inflation were lower, real take home pay would be higher.
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That's just the arithmetic.
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Wages are a pretty big issue for the Fed.
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As we were coming out of the pandemic and all of the stimulus was out there, it was having a tremendous effect on wages. Wages were through the roof over time.
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That has evened out. Of course, something like that's not going to continue forever.
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When we talk about wages, you have to take inflation into account. People have still gotten raises, but that has gotten eaten away by rising energy prices. The level of real wages has stayed flat or declined, even though people are still sometimes getting actually bigger paychecks than they used to be.
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Job switchers are getting a much better bang for their buck as far as wages go.
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Job stayers? Not so much people at the lower end of the income spectrum?
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Not so much in terms of whether wages are keeping up with inflation. People at the higher end of the spectrum are doing better.
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Wages have moved up at a reasonable pace, but it's likely that as productivity moves up more, we should see wages move more.
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So the Fed, in its report to Congress this month, said productivity is starting to look really promising. Productivity is basically how much gets produced for a given hour of work.
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Generally speaking, productivity is the thing that makes economic growth happen.
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The US economy for a long time was in a kind of productivity slump that people really worried about.
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The big question for a long time is, what is the United States going to do to try to get productivity to increase again?
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I think Kevin Warsh made AI as one of his top task force priorities because he wants to get out in front of the issue.
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If this cycle, Congressman, is like the previous positive technology shocks, the US will be richer, will be more productive, there'll be more labor, there'll be more wages, there'll be more compensation.
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Kevin Warsh personally selected the three members of this task force.
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They are Marc Andreessen, a venture capitalist, Charles Jones, who is a former Stanford economist who's recently gone to anthropic, and Asha Sharma, who is the CEO of Xbox at Microsoft. Those are all sort of big bullish pro tech voices. The kind of big changes that Kevin Warsh is talking about at the Fed have not really materialized. He's got a guy, for instance, advising him who says economic growth used to be 2% for 150 years in U.S.
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history. And now AI is going to make it be 5%.
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But those numbers really haven't shown up yet.
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Can you understand why a task force that is led by people in large part, who are likely to get richer by AI might not be the most credible people.
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The Fed can act on wages indirectly.
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It can raise or lower interest rates.
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It's not a perfect tool.
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It's not an exact tool, but it is the main tool that the Fed has to influence economic conditions.
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What we can do in making sure that people are confident that the change in prices is at such a level, that they don't have to think about it, and they don't have to talk about it.
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That is consistent with long term Treasury yields being lower, and that's also consistent with mortgages being more affordable.
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Kevin Warsh was sent to the Fed by Donald Trump with the anticipation that at some point, he's going to offer lower interest rates.
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And Chairman Warsh's contention behind the ability to do that is the fact that AI is going to result in a strong productivity boom.
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Warsh, his own colleagues don't believe that case right now. It's going to be interesting to see how well he's able to sell that.
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Bu dersin kelimeleri ve konuşma notları
Bu B2 seviyesindeki konuşma dersi “Why Workers Stopped Getting Big Raises” videosuna dayanıyor. En çok tekrarlanan kelimeler: wages, Warsh, productivity, Fed, Kevin. Bu videoda gölgeleme çalışması için 37 cümle ve 750 kelime var. Konuşma bölümü 4:23 sürüyor. Konuşmacı dakikada yaklaşık 171 kelimeyle, günlük konuşmaya yakın doğal bir hızda konuşuyor. Kelimelerin %83’i İngilizcede en sık kullanılan 3.000 kelime arasında; geri kalanına başlamadan önce bakmakta fayda var.
Bu videodaki önemli kelimeler
Videodaki en ileri düzey 13 kelime, telaffuzu ve anlamıyla:
| Kelime | Telaffuz | Anlam |
|---|---|---|
| inflation isim | /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/ | enflasyon |
| factual sıfat | /ˈfæk.tʃ(u)əl/ | somut |
| contention isim | /kənˈtɛnʃən/ | anlaşmazlık, atışma |
| anticipation isim | /ænˌtɪs.əˈpeɪ.ʃən/ | sezinleme |
| credible sıfat | /ˈkɹɛdəbl̩/ | inandırıcı |
| capitalist isim | /ˈkæp.ɪ.tə.lɪst/ | kapitalist |
| economist isim | /iˈkɑ.nə.mɪst/ | ekonomist, iktisatçı |
| delight isim | /dəˈlaɪt/ | sevinç, neşe |
| colleague isim | /ˈkɒliːɡ/ | çalışma arkadaşı, meslektaş |
| advise fiil | /ədˈvaɪz/ | tavsiye etmek |
| monetary sıfat | /ˈmʌnɪtəɹi/ | parasal |
| yield fiil | /jiːld/ | ürün vermek |
| testimony isim | /ˈtɛstɪmoʊni/ | ifade |
Duyacağınız deyimsel fiiller
| Kelime | Anlam |
|---|---|
| show up fiil | ortaya çıkmak |
Bu videodaki dil bilgisi
Konuşmacının en çok kullandığı yapılar, videodaki sözcüklerin aynısıyla:
| Yapı | Videoda |
|---|---|
| “Used to” used to + fiil — artık geçerli olmayan eski bir alışkanlık ya da durum | used to be |
| Present perfect have/has + fiilin üçüncü hâli — geçmişte olan ama şimdi de önemli olan bir eylem | has been · has evened · have still gotten |
| Edilgen yapı be + fiilin üçüncü hâli — kimin yaptığı değil, ne olduğu önemli | is led · was sent |
Dikkat edilecek telaffuzlar
Konuşmacı don't, there'll, haven't gibi kısaltılmış biçimleri 10 kez kullanıyor. Bunları duyduğunuz gibi kısa söyleyin.
- “th” sesleri: anthropic /ænˈθɹɒp.ɪk/, arithmetic /æɹɪθˈmɛtɪk/
- “sh” ve “zh” sesleri: inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/, bullish /ˈbʊlɪʃ/, contention /kənˈtɛnʃən/, anticipation /ænˌtɪs.əˈpeɪ.ʃən/
- Uzun kelimeler — vurguyu doğru yere koyun: productivity /ˌpɹɒdʌkˈtɪvəti/, arithmetic /æɹɪθˈmɛtɪk/, materialize /məˈtɪɹiəlaɪz/, indirectly /ˌɪn.dɪˈɹɛk(t).li/, anticipation /ænˌtɪs.əˈpeɪ.ʃən/
Türkçe konuşanların zorlandığı sesler:
- Kelime başındaki ünsüz kümesi — araya ünlü eklemeyin: productivity /ˌpɹɒdʌkˈtɪvəti/, stayer /ˈsteɪ.ɚ/, credible /ˈkɹɛdəbl̩/, stimulus /ˈstɪm.jə.ləs/, tremendous /tɹɪˈmɛndəs/
- /æ/ — “e”den daha açık: anthropic /ænˈθɹɒp.ɪk/, arithmetic /æɹɪθˈmɛtɪk/, factual /ˈfæk.tʃ(u)əl/, anticipation /ænˌtɪs.əˈpeɪ.ʃən/, capitalist /ˈkæp.ɪ.tə.lɪst/
Bu videoyla nasıl çalışılır
- Videonun tamamını konuşmadan bir kez dinleyin ve bilmediğiniz kelimeleri not edin.
- 0,75× hızla başlayın, cümle cümle tekrar edin ve kolaylaşınca normal hıza dönün.
- Kendinizi kaydedin ve orijinaliyle karşılaştırın; inflation, factual, contention gibi kelimelere özellikle dikkat edin.
Gölgeleme Tekniği Nedir?
Gölgeleme, başlangıçta profesyonel tercüman eğitimi için geliştirilen ve çok dilli Dr. Alexander Arguelles tarafından popüler hale getirilen, bilim destekli bir dil öğrenme tekniğidir. Yöntem basit ama güçlüdür: ana dili İngilizce olan bir sesi dinler ve hemen yüksek sesle tekrar edersiniz — konuşmacıyı 1-2 saniye gecikmeyle takip eden bir gölge gibi. Pasif dinleme veya dilbilgisi alıştırmalarının aksine, gölgeleme beyninizi ve ağız kaslarınızı gerçek konuşma kalıplarını eşzamanlı olarak işlemeye ve yeniden üretmeye zorlar. Araştırmalar, telaffuz doğruluğu, tonlama, ritim, bağlı konuşma, dinleme anlama ve konuşma akıcılığını önemli ölçüde geliştirdiğini göstermektedir — bu da onu IELTS Konuşma hazırlığı ve gerçek dünya İngilizce iletişimi için en etkili yöntemlerden biri yapar.